自信预测：更智能的食品饮料采购指南

Harness data-driven intelligence to optimize packaging and ingredientsourcing, navigate volatility and safeguard your margins Contents PageSection About Fastmarkets We are a leading Price Reporting Agency (PRA) dedicatedto providing transparent, trusted pricing data andmarket intelligence. Fastmarkets adheres to the rigorous standards of theInternational Organization of Securities Commissions(IOSCO), a global cooperative of securities regulatorsthat establishes worldwide standards for fair and efficientmarkets. This adherence ensures our price assessments areunbiased, methodology-driven and reflective of true marketvalue, minimizing the risk of price manipulation and givingusers greater confidence in the data. When you rely on Fastmarkets, you aren’t just getting data;you are getting a neutral benchmark that stands up toscrutiny in the boardroom and at the negotiating table,helping you make strategic decisions with greater conviction. The new reality of food andbeverage procurement 01 Volatility is no longer an exception; it is the baselinefor the food and beverage industry. For procurementleaders, the days of predictable annual contractsand stable input costs are behind us. Today,managing the cost of goods sold (COGS) requires alevel of agility that traditional sourcing strategiessimply cannot support. This playbook is designed for food and beverageprocurement leaders who need to confidentlynavigate market volatility and protect margins byunifying cost forecasting across packaging andingredient supply chains. It moves beyond the silosof separate buying teams to provide a holistic viewof the inputs that drive your profitability. In 2025, box shipments were down1.8% and containerboardproduction declined by 4.5%. 02 Market summary To help you navigate the complexities of the 2026landscape, we have gathered actionableintelligence from our leading industry experts. Theirinsights underscore the critical need forindependent data and forward-looking analytics inthree key areas, critical for food and beveragecompanies: paper packaging, ingredients andmetals. Key takeaways: •Identify volatility triggers:Gain visibility into the specific market forces impacting pulp, cartonboard andcorrugated board – such as capacityactions, supply disruptions and energycosts – before they affect your bottomline. Fastmarkets tracks asset changes,with recent North American closures ofSavannah (1.03 million tons) and CedarSprings (1.02 million tons) tighteningsupply and influencing price forecasts. InEurope, despite closures, capacityadditions sustained an overhang above2.6 million tonnes in 2025. 1. Paper packaging marketsThe fiber-based packaging market is shaped by global cost lines and local dynamics. These factorspresent multinational food and beverageprocurement teams with the challenge oftranslating rapidly changing regional supply, energyand recovered fiber conditions into contract terms,surcharge calculations and margin protection.Volatility is now the norm and forecasting breaksdown when teams rely solelyon siloed inputs, supplier narratives or inconsistentinternal assumptions. •Leverage forecast data:Use independent Fastmarkets benchmarks – the “single source of truth”– to challenge supplier narratives duringprice negotiations and contract planning.Our price assessments span 80+ gradesand reflect verified market transactions,not just anecdotal claims. Recent NorthAmerican data shows 42-lb kraftlinercosts at $228/ton (Q4 2025), with fibercosts at $118/ton (declining) and energyat $49/ton (stable). With thistransparency, you can benchmarksupplier requests, separating legitimatecost pressure from margin expansion. Packaging costs face pressure from shiftingdemand, retailer negotiations, energy and logisticschanges, currency movements and mill closures. Forexample, Fastmarkets’ January outlook for theNorth American paper packaging market forecastscontainerboard prices increasing by $50/ton fromMarch, accelerated by producer announcementsand rising energy costs. In 2025, box shipments were down 1.8% andcontainerboard production declined by 4.5%.Meanwhile, Western Europe is structurally long, withovercapacity exceeding 2.6 million tonnes in 2025and still projected above 1.5 million tonnes into late2026, keeping prices closely tied to manufacturingcost trends. Such regional shifts matter globally;procurement rarely happens in just one geography. When procurement can forecast withconfidence, even small percentagemovements in board or corrugated pricestranslate into substantial savings at scale.For instance, a 2.5% validated marketincrease versus an unverified 4% supplierrequest on a $5 million annual regional spendcould mean a £75,000 difference per region.Multiply this across a global footprint andthe impact on margins is significant. Betterforecasting reduces emergency orders,optimizes inventory and ensures budgetaccuracy, turning data-driven intelligenceinto margin protection. 2. Agriculture and ingredien