将地缘政治波动转化为优势的五个步骤（英）

Five steps to turninggeopolitical volatility intoan advantage As geopolitics redraws trade flows and strategic priorities, CEOs whoanticipate the shifts—and reallocate capital accordingly—can create durablenew growth pathways. This article is a collaborative effort by Cindy Levy, Ezra Greenberg, Matt Watters, Shubham Singhal, and ZiadHaider, representing views from McKinsey’s Geopolitics Practice. After several yearsof intense geopolitical volatility, it’s clear that multinational corporations(MNCs) have entered a new era. Growing regional realignments and shifting trade dynamics areforcing CEOs across industries to rethink their global strategies. In 2025, many MNCs focused on defensive risk management, delaying decisions and protectingtheir balance sheets asnew tariffsandexport controls, regulatory fragmentation, and politicaluncertainty raised costs, complicated compliance, and undermined long-term planning.However, the same forces creating challenges are also forging new opportunities. Whilegeopolitical shiftsare changing the economics of where to build, source, and sell, theyhaven’tslowed global trade—just shifted its flows. CEOs who wait for the uncertainty to clearrisk falling behind peers who seize opportunities emerging in new markets ortrade corridorsand build new sources of competitive advantage. Doug Beck, former director of the US DefenseInnovation Unit and now a member of McKinsey’sGeopolitics Advisory Council (GAC), stressesurgency: “The one thing every CEO needs to do right now is to get their top teams together andfundamentally rethink strategy under this level of uncertainty.” In a series of recent interviews with leaders of global companies, we found that many arereframing their approaches to the current environment. “We’re rethinking our value creationtheses,” says the CEO of a North American electronics manufacturer, adding that “we havefound a competitive advantage in others’ paralysis.” Leaders are responding to the proliferationofindustrial incentivesand deepening integration among trading partners by aligninginvestments with national industrial priorities and redesigning operations to reflectregionaltrade rearrangements. Some are already seeing material benefits—from TSMC receiving morethan $6 billion in government funding to expand US-based manufacturing1to Rheinmetallreporting a record €63.8-billion order backlog last year amid surging European defensespending.2 Much hangs in the balance. The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) hasmodeled trade corridorgrowth patternsand found that the value at stake—the difference between minimum andmaximum values of corridor trade across various scenarios—could equal 31 percent of totalprojected trade in 2035, or about $14 trillion. Companies that gain access to growing corridorsby revamping their production footprints and operating models will be best positioned tocapture future opportunities. As Charles Darwin argued, “It is not the strongest of the speciesthat survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable tochange.”3In this article, we present a five-part agenda for CEOs to understand the changesunderway and to identify the most effective ways to respond. Understanding the new global trade order “The trading system as we knew it for at least a couple of generations no longer exists,”concludes Robert Lighthizer, former US trade representative and a member of McKinsey’s GAC.For decades, protocols established by the World Trade Organization and various conventions governed tariff negotiations, dispute resolution, and other aspects of global trade. These normshave started to unravel in recent years, however, as governments increasingly pursueindependent policies to support economic growth, technological advances, and securitypriorities. The 2025 US National Security Strategy, for example, reinforces economic and supplychain security, industrial capacity, technological leadership, and capital market strength asnational priorities.4China’s latest five-year plan, meanwhile, includes technological self-reliance,economic stability, and the modernization of core industries among its key pillars.5In thisenvironment, value creation is increasingly shaped by new trade corridors, growing defensespending, expansion of export controls and industrial policies, and shifting flows of foreigninvestment. Growth focused on trade corridors Despite rising trade tensions and costs, global trade expanded in 2025 roughly in line witheconomic growth,6with preliminary data from the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)showing an increase of 7 percent.7The concentration of trade growth, however, is shiftingtonew corridors connecting geopolitically aligned partners. The China–US relationship illustratesthis change: Trade between the two countries fell by around 30 percent between 2024 and2025, and the United States has offset about two-thirds of that amount by increasing trade withgeopolitical allies, particularly in Europe and