管理传输约束的目标模型——证据和分析报告

A target model for managing transmission constraints:realising the value of demand creation and clean flexibility Evidence and analysis report Supported by SFT’sdemand and clean This work has been supported by the members of SFT’s demand and clean flexibility working group.These organisations have contributed review and challenge to the ideas laid out in this paper. The full Contents Introduction4Methodology6What does curtailment look like?7Interventions studied10Responsive demand-creation: fuel switching at a distillery12Electrified heat network14Electrified vehicle charging17Hydrogen electrolysers18Batteries and electricity system energy storage19Large-scale baseload: data centres25Additional domestic demand creation26Using otherwise curtailed energy to reduce fuel poverty27Analysis of NESO’s Local Constraint Market28Endnotes32 Introduction This report details analysis of operational data on transmission constraintmanagement undertaken by NESO through the balancing mechanism (BM).Specifically, it looks at the potential impact of demand creation and cleanflexibility on the reduction of wind curtailment in Scotland as part of constraintmanagement. It supports theA target model for managing transmission The analysis presented here highlights why it is critical to prioritiseimprovements to constraint management. It shows that even relatively small interventions can have a large effect on the volume and cost of wind curtailment.It also demonstrates that a shift towards demand creation and clean flexibility The modelling presented here should be seen as illustrative of the scale, andpoints towards where more detailed analysis will be useful. It makes effectiveuse of publicly available data, but this data is limited. For example, NESO doesnot publish time-series data on constraint depth or its breakdown by boundary,so these must be inferred from actions taken and reported in the BalancingMechanism (BM). It is also important to note that the scale and structure Under the current system, the majority of constraints are resolved using theBM, with NESO usually turning down generation behind an export constraintand replacing it with alternative generation in front of the constraint. The lack Whilst clean flexibility can support more effective management of both sides ofthe constraint, this work focuses on the role of these technologies in reducing Despite these variations, it is clear that network constraints will remain asignificant and inherent feature of a renewables-based electricity system. Theoptimal level of constraints is not zero, and the characteristics of renewables -particularly the correlation of the output of separate wind farms - are likely to The work analyses the potential to reduce wind curtailment in Scotland. Whilstwind curtailment is not the majority of constraint costs (these are primarilydriven by the cost of gas turn-up in front of an export constraint), it is the most TheTarget Modelreport, which this work supports, sets out a new approachto constraint management which is designed to make greater use of demandcreation and clean flexibility. The objective of the target model is to: minimise theuse of wind curtailment and gas turn-up in managing transmission constraintswhilst delivering better value to consumers, the economy and society. Box 1: Constraint and curtailment A transmission constraint arises when delivering the outcome of the wholesalemarket, which is largely non-locational, would breach the operational limits ofthe transmission network. In simple terms, one part of the system has more This report uses the convention of describingexporting constraints. Under thisconvention the area behind the constraint has an excess of generation and the Constraints are resolved by redispatching assets away from their wholesalemarket position. Today this is typically done by adjusting generation, althoughin future demand and clean flexibility could play a much larger role. Generation The cost of managing a constraint has two components:• Turn-down costs:payments made to reduce generation behind theconstraint. Where these payments are made to renewable generators, this •Turn-up costs:payments made to increase generation or demand in front of The analysis in this report focuses on the area behind the export constraint and,specifically, on reduction of curtailment costs paid to Scottish wind farms. Methodology Most of the results in this paper are derived froma single methodology applied to historical windcurtailment for three calendar years using data from2023 to 2025. The approach creates a time-seriesof the volume and cost of wind curtailment actionstaken in the BM for each settlement period. Withineach settlement period, a curtailment supply curveis constructed by ordering NESO’s accepted actions This methodology is supplemented by additionalanalysis which provides context. This includesanalysis of recent activity in the Local ConstraintMarket (LCM), as well as wider ener