管理输电约束的目标模型：实现需求创造和清洁灵活性的价值

A target model for managing transmission constraints:realising the value of demand creation and clean flexibility Supported by SFT’sdemand and clean This work has been supported by the members of SFT’s demand and clean flexibility working group. Theseorganisations have contributed review and challenge to the ideas laid out in this paper. The full financial Author: Dr Simon GillStatus: PublishedVersion: 1.0 Contents Executive summary4Why we need to improve constraint management5An initial focus on reducing wind curtailment: quantifying value7A target model to support demand creation and clean flexibility8Alignment with existing processes11Delivering the target model12The case for change14Introduction15What is wrong with the current system?20How can demand and clean flexibility help manage constraints?22How much of a role can demand and flexibility play?25The impact of additional demand and flexibility in 202528Towards a target model31Objective34Principles35Counterfactuals40Building blocks42Non-commodity costs54Interactions56Conclusion and recommendations59Acronyms list61Endnotes62 Executivesummary Why we need to improve constraint management Constraint management is no longer a marginal issue; it is a central challenge for the GB energy system.Zero-carbon wind is routinely curtailed while turning up unabated gas generation, an outcome that is Yet the system is failing to use two of its most powerful tools: demand creation and clean flexibility.Energy storage and demand time-shifting combined with a strong focus on strategic acceleration of the Whilst most experts agree that these tools can and should be used, the current framework does notenable, or reward them, for doing so. Today’s approach to constraint management is based almostentirely on the Balancing Mechanism (BM) which operates during the last hour before delivery. The This report proposes a model that will deprioritise wind curtailment and unabated gas turn-up to makethem actions of last resort for constraint management. The growth of constraints Transmission constraints have grown rapidly in recent years and are now a material system cost. AcrossGB, constraints reached 13 TWh in 2025 with the majority related to delayed network build-out betweenScotland and the rest of GB. The Reformed National Pricing (RNP) Delivery Plan, published by UKGovernment in April 2026, suggested that constraint costs could rise as high as £7 billion per year by the The main mechanisms for managing constraints are the curtailment of renewable generation and itsreplacement by turning up unabated gas. These are not actions compatible with Clean Power 2030’sambition of a decarbonised electricity system. Curtailment of Scottish wind alone has reached around 10 The role of demand creation and clean flexibility Demand creation and clean flexibility provide a fundamentally different way to manage constraints.Accelerating the growth of electricity demand behind export constraints can naturally make use of otherwise-curtailed renewable generation, reducing the need to pay wind farms to turn off. In addition, improved Clean flexibility can also replace gas turn-up in front of export constraints ensuring that the system remainsbalanced without reliance on fossil fuels. Together, these technologies can shift constraint management away Recognising value across the system Demand creation and clean flexibility create value across and beyond the energy system. Sometimes thisvalue is created at investment stage, for example when, in response to constraint management frameworks,a factory owner chooses to electrify an industrial process, or a driver chooses to move from a petrol car to an This wider value is often in addition to any direct savings it can deliver within the electricity system. However,today’s approach to constraint management does not capture this value for several reasons: •Narrowoperationalfocus:decisions are largely based on minimising short-term balancing costs, rather •Incomplete valuation of wider benefits:the current approach does not properly account for benefitsbeyond the balancing market, such as faster decarbonisation, lower heating and transport costs, or the •Weakinvestmentsignals: because actions are mainly short-term and operational, the current modelprovides little long-term certainty for investors and therefore does not support new flexibility assets where An initial focus on reducing wind curtailment: quantifying value •Adding a 100 MW / 200 MWh battery:, with appropriate dispatcharrangements, could have reduced curtailment by 24 GWh and saved £1.7million. Mechanisms that reward this service, while recognising existing Whilst clean flexibility can help reduce the use of gas turn-up, the quickest winswill come from encouraging demand creation and the use of clean flexibilitybehind an export constraint, to replace wind curtailment. Modelling carried out to •Providing up to 1 kWh of additional “free” electricity to every household i