AI、市场与马克思

George Saravelos Global Head of FX ResearchMay 28, 2026 Key Points 1. The Al Capex Boom is global. Approximately 6o% of hyperscaler capex is leaking outside of the US, predominantly to north Asia 3. Al risks global growth divergence. After the Capex Boom is over, productivity benefits will accrue to the users of Al. Current usage is highly correlatedwith GDP per capita levels; richer countries are more intense users of Al and poorer ones are laggards. There is not that much differentiation withindevelopedeconomies however, the dominance of Us technology companies suggests they will reap future profits on the capex. Reasonable assumptions suggest a roughly 1% ofGDP positive impact on the US current account via higher services exports. 5. The social and economic disruption of Al could vastly outweigh the productivity benefits if Al displaces rather than augments labour. If this issuccessfully 6. The intensifying technological competition between the US and China creates significant uncertainty. While the US currently holds the lead on thefrontier of Al technology, China is leading in the industrial and consumer application of Al which may mean US exceptionalism is overstated. There is also aquestion mark on the monetization of closed form versus open source Al models. 7. Strategic autonomconcerns in the rest of the world may also slow the adoption of both US and China technology. This may slow theproductivity benefits but ultimately create greater domestic value creation. Al, Markets and Marx 1. The impact of the Al capex boom on global capital flows 2. The impact of the Al capex boom on inflation 4. What happens if Elon Musk is right? ycie is very Globa GDP-adjusted beneficiaries How $1tr of Al capex is allocated as a share of GDP The US - Taiwan symbiosis Why isn't Asia FX booming? Key conclusions on Al capital flows Half of the Al dollars stay in the US but mostly as income (wages/profits $30) or NVIDIAbuybacks ($15) The US captures the profit pool (Nvidia 70%+ gross margin); Asia captures the productivecapital stock (TSMC fabs, Samsung/SK Hynix) Approximately $8 of offshore leakage returns to the US via FDl ($1.5), dividends ($1.5),CA surplus recycling ($3), imported parts ($1.5) Total US capture over full cycle is around 60%. The remaining is genuine value transfer to(north) Asia Asia FX is not rallying more due to the energy crisis and recycling back to the US Al cycle works UsD supportive via supporting financing inflows. But a lot of those get"leaked out", so this is not as strong as headlines suggest Al, Markets and Marx 1. The impact of the Al capex boom on global capital flows 2. The impact of the Al capex boom on inflation 3. The impact of Al after the capex boom is over 4. What happens if Elon Musk is right? So far, can only see Al inflation Nothing to see in US labour markets % yoy change in continued claims, (4w ma) (Latest 2026 vs year ago) But, Samsung agreed to a $4oOk annual chip worker bonus Key conclusions on the inflation debate and rates The initial Stanford finding of the Al impact on the labour market did not account for coincidentalFed tightening There is little rigorous evidence of an Al relationship with the labour market either in the US orglobally A demand-driven capex boom should raise global r* (lower saving) and generate hawkish risk forthose economies most impacted by Al capex (North Asia, US) Al, Markets and Marx 1. The impact of the Al capex boom on global capital flows 2. The impact of the Al capex boom on inflation 3. The impact of Al afterthe capex boom is over 4. What happens if Elon Musk is right? What comes after the capex cycle? Global Al usage very unequal, but mostly accounted for by GDP Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, MS Copilot Cowork,Anthropic The profits on CapEx will overwhelmingly benefit US firms Key conclusions on impact after the CapEx boom is over Who uses it? The more global the use, the less impact on FX as less differentiation ineconomic outcomes. Evidence so far suggests global dissemination is highlybigger global growth divergence, especially between high- and low-income countries. Who owns it? The US (together with China) will be the primary beneficiaries of Al incomestreams - this should generate stable export revenues much like the discovery of a newunderground commodity. Based on reasonable assumptions, the Us income stream couldbe around 1% of GDP. Al adoption patterns however highly uncertain: strategic autonomy considerations and Source: Deutsche Bank research / Bloomberg Finance LP / Copilot cowork Al, Markets and Marx 1. The impact of the Al capex boom on global capital flows 2. The impact of the Al capex boom on inflation 3. The impact of Al after the capex boom is over 4. What happens if Elon Musk is right? Humans have worried about machines since Marx “If you want to do a job that's kinda like a hobby, you can do ajob. But otherwise, Al and the robots will provide any