ABF基板：CPU复兴推动ABF短缺；上调揖斐电目标价至23,900日元

ABF Substrate: Renaissance of CPU drives ABF shortage; LiftingIbiden PT to ¥23,900 ABF demand surges due to Renaissance of CPU.As outlined in SoftBank & ArmInitiation, server CPU volumes should expand 4x over 2026-2030, driven by the rise ofagentic AI. This is great for ABF substrates where server CPUs contribute ~40% of thedemand. Beyond unit growth, content growth also remains supportive, as newer-gen CPUsrequire larger substrates and increasing core counts (Intel Diamond Rapids area is ~36%larger vs. Granite Rapids). Driven by volume growth and larger chip sizes of server CPUs(37% CAGR), we revise up our demand forecast by 4%/24% in 2026/2027 and expectthe demand to grow 22% CAGR over 2025-2028. Our current estimate likely remainsconservative, as it does not yet incorporate lower yields associated with larger and morecomplex substrates.Our ABF supply-demand model can be downloadedhere. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Euan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com ABF supply is far from catching up with demand growth.Suppliers have stepped upcapacity investment, but supply growth remains well short of demand growth. We forecastindustry supply to grow at a 12% CAGR over 2025-2028. Among the major ABF suppliers,Ibiden and Unimicron appear to be the most aggressive in expanding capacity as they havethe best customer exposure, supported in part by customer prepayments. Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com ABF shortage at full swing from 2027.Based on the above, we forecast the ABF marketto enter an industry-wide shortage from 2027, with demand officially surpassing supply,and the imbalance worsening further in 2028. The industry utilization is rapidly surpassing100% in 2027, from 80-85% in 2025. Demand is growing at 22% CAGR over 2025-28,while supply is only growing at 12% CAGR, so supply shortage is just a matter of time. Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Ajinomoto’s ABF film production unlikely to be a bottleneck, and we see the companystarting to leverage their pricing power on the back of downstream price increases.Ajinomoto has been investing ahead of the curve, increasing capacity by c. 25% in mid2025 with the Gunma expansion, and further scope to double output by extending theoperating week to 7 days and running a second shift daily. Ajinomoto’s third production sitein Gifu is scheduled to come online in 2032, or 2030 as required. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Hao Wang, CFA+852 2123 2627hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com Raise PT for Ibiden. In light of the anticipated shortage, we revise up Ibiden's revenueby 3-13% for FY27/3E-FY28/3E. Given the tightening supply backdrop alongside risinginput costs, we expect Ibiden to implement price hikes. Our current estimates are baked in a4%/6%/12% price increase across FY27/28/29/3E, though this largely reflects productmix shift rather than outright pricing hike. Any shortage is likely to result in further upsideto ASP. We raise our price target to¥23,900, based on 35x FY29/3E EPS. We believe theimproved demand visibility and stronger earnings growth justify the higher target multiple(35x vs. 30x previously). While we understand Ibiden is trading at a high multiple, we wouldlook for more upside in pricing before taking profit on the name. ReiterateOutperform. Mufei Gao+81 3 6777 6995mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com ForUnimicron (Outperform),We estimate ABF substrate ASP hike will accelerate from5% QoQ in 1Q26 to 7-10% QoQ through 2026 driven by a ~30% raw material cost hikefrom 2Q and a richer high-end ABF mix. We assume a more gradual margin recovery vs.consensus, with corporate GM reaching ~35% by end-2028. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended2802.JP estimate is Adjusted EPS; 2802.JP valuation is EV/EBITDA (x); 2802.JP base year is 2026;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Ibiden:We rate IbidenOutperform, with PT =¥23,900. Unmicron:We rate UnimicronOutperform, with PT =NT$990.00. Ajinomoto:We rate AjinomotoOutperformwith a¥6,700price target. DETAILS ABF DEMAND SURGES DUE TO RENAISSANCE OF CPU We revise up our demand forecast for Ajinomoto Build-up Film (ABF) substrates by 4%/24% in 2026/2027. We now expect thedemand to grow 22% CAGR over 2025-2028, mostly driven the increased demand outlook of server CPUs (Exhibit 1-Exhibit 2).This is great for ABF substrates where server CPUs contribute ~40% of the demand. Driven by the rise of agentic AI, as outlined in SoftBank, Arm: From GenAI to Agentic AI; Initiating with Outperform Ratings,server CPU demand should increase materially through 2030. We forecast server CPU volumes reaching 30mn unit