上调三井金属目标价至56000日元，维持增持评级

Lift Forecasts for MicroThin (AITransceivers) +81 3 6836-5432 What’s Changed FromTo¥37,000¥56,000 Mitsui Kinzoku (5706.T, 5706 JT) Stock RatingOverweightIndustry ViewIn-LinePrice target¥56,000Up/downside to price target (%)16Shr price, close (Jun 18, 2026)¥48,100Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)¥2,751.9Div yld (03/27e) (%)0.5 AI-related copper foil sales driving Mitsui Kinzoku's growth. Welift PT to ¥56,000 and stay OW. PT ¥56,000, stay OW:We roll forward the base year for our calculation from F3/27to F3/28. Our PT ¥56,000 is based on P/E 29.0x using SOTP: P/E 36.5x for copperfoil and P/E 15.5x for others. While we had previously applied a P/E of 30.3x to thecopper foil business, we have raised its P/E multiple, reflecting both the increase inaverage P/E for CCL and PCB manufacturers within the copper foil supply chain andour upward revision to the growth outlook for the company’s AI-related copper foil;accordingly, we have expanded the premium from 15% to 20%. We revise our forecasts for F3/27 onward:We lower our F3/27 RP forecast to¥120bn (from ¥125bn; -12.2% YoY). Excluding one-offs, we forecast RP at ¥123.6bn(+9%), with Engineered Materials at ¥90.6bn (+36%), including copper foil at¥66.5bn (+¥25bn). Compared to our prior forecast, we raise Engineered Materials by~¥12bn on higher volumes and price hikes for HVLP (AI servers) and MicroThin(memory), but cut Metals due to adverse lead spreads and higher energy costs. Weraise our F3/28 RP forecast to ¥145bn (from ¥140bn; -20.8% YoY), with copper foilat about ¥93bn (+¥26bn YoY) on price increases and volume growth, incorporatinghigher shipment assumptions. For F3/29, we newly forecast ¥175bn (YoY +20.7%),factoring in increased MicroThin volumes for AI transceivers, which we expect toexpand rapidly from around 200km2/month in F3/26 to 800km2/month by F3/29.We assume conservative MicroThin price increases of +14% in F3/27 and +10% inF3/28–29. Catalysts and risks:Near-term catalysts include 1Q results, Malaysia/domesticcopper foil stats, and price hikes across the copper foil supply chain (e.g. CCL andPCB). Risks include weaker-than-expected macro conditions leading to reduceddemand for semiconductor memory and AI server PCBs, as well as sharper-than-expected yen appreciation and declines in commodity prices such as zinc. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Investment summary F3/26 Results Recap F3/26 RP of ¥136.7bn (+79% YoY) beat the consensus for ¥121bn and guidance/ourforecast for ¥120bn. Against our forecast, the Metals segment outperformed, driven bymarket factors. F3/27 guidance calls for RP of ¥93bn (-32% YoY), below the consensus for¥114bn. Guidance is also ~¥10bn below our prior forecasts for each of the EngineeredMaterials and Metals segments. In Engineered Materials, we had forecast +¥5bn YoY RPgrowth, driven by copper foil, but the company guides for flat profit due to higher HQcosts and other factors. However, we think the company's assumptions for MicroThin andHVLP-related price hike effects and sales volumes (+13% YoY) are relatively conservative.In Metals, the company assumes variances in copper smelting operations and the lead rawmaterial mix will be worse than we do. Guidance for RP excluding one-time factors todecline (from ¥97.8bn in F3/26 to ¥85.4bn in F3/27) left a poor impression, and the shareprice showed a stronger corrective tone post-results. Focus points for Mitsui Kinzoku Near-term focus points:We see scope for growth in HVLP demand for NVIDIA's Rubin.Reports of front-loaded shipments among Asian competitors also suggests to us thatdemand is firm. We therefore expect Mitsui Kinzoku to hike its conservative guidance atthe time of F3/27 1Q results. However, we caution that this may still be lower than theconsensus. While several copper foil manufacturers are capable of producing products upto HVLP4, we understand Mitsui Kinzoku is the only one to have established massproduction capabilities for HVLP5, suggesting technical barriers are high for higher added-value products. Medium-term focus points:We expect consensus estimates to be revised upwardfollowing the announcement of further production capacity expansion works for HVLPand MicroThin. In MicroThin, we forecast continued steady growth in demand for memory,but rapid