小米（1810 HK）：开局良好；挑战可控

Electronic Equipment &Instruments Buy: Good start; challenges well in hand expectedfrom618promotion• Yu7 product matrix expansion and April delivery recovery reinforcefull-year confidence+ Retain Buy; adjust estimates and cut TP to HKD50.00 (from 50.0054.00 HKD54.00) margins.Xiaomi's 1Q26 revenue of RMB99.1bn and adjusted net profit of RMB6.1bncameinmodestlyaheadofourforecasts,withtheupsideprimarilydrivenbybetter-than-expected gross margins in both smartphones and loT.Smartphone grossmargin held at 10.1% despite memory cost headwinds, supported by record AsP ofRMB1,310 (+8.2%Y-o-Y)and active management of mid/low-end shipment mix.loTgross margin expanded 5.1ppt Q-o-Q to 25.2%.However,we expect marginpressuretore-emergein2Q26,asthe618promotionalseasontypicallyweighsonASPandchanneleconomics.AutorevenueofRMB19.9bnandthecompany'stotalR&D spend of RMB9.Obn were broadly in line. Overall, we view the quarter as a solidoperational print against a challengingcost backdrop. loT premiumisation and Al monetisation taking shape.On smartphones,management ruled out linear cost pass-through to consumers.The strategy is toredefineproducts aroundperceivedvalue at the new cost structure,manage downmid/low-end volumes, and drive AsP uplift through mix improvement. On loT, whilethecompanyisfirmlyexecutingpremiumisationtooffsetpressurefromsmartphonecosthiking,overseasrevenuenowaccountsfornearly40%of thesegment in1Q26commercechannel,andalesscompetitivelandscapethandomestically.OnAl,overseascallsaccountingforover50%of totalusage,butmanagementpositionedMiMo not as a standalone model business but as deeply integrated with Xiaomi'sownproductsanddataecosystem(source:companydata). EVproduct matrix strengthened; monthlydeliveriesbackonan upwardtrend.The launch of the YU7 Standard and YU7 GT meaningfully broadens the productmatrix.WhiletheStandard editiontargetseverydayurbancommuters,theGTisattracting performance car owners looking to trade up.For 2Q26, although thepurchase tax subsidy drag phases out and the YU7 GT's higher ASP should provideatailwind,weexpectautogrossmarginto remainbroadlyflatQ-o-Qasrawmaterialcost pressures, including batteries and memory, continue to offset these benefits.Monthly deliveries have resumed growth momentum in April with over 30,000 unitsfull-year 550,000 unit target remains intact (source: company data). BingyiZheng*(Reg.No.S1700521060001)Analyst, A-share Technology HardwareHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedbingyi.zheng@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662028 Steven Sun*, CFA (Reg. No. S1700517110003)Head ofResearch, HSB Qianhai Securities LimitedHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedstevensun@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3158 Yongzhu Wang* (Reg. No. S1700125070003)AssociateShenzhen Earnings revision; cutTPtoHKD50.00;maintain Buy.Wereviseddown2026and2027 non-GAAP net income estimates by 10%and 3%, respectively,given prolongedsmartphoneweakness andhigherR&DforAlbusinessexpansions,whilewe lift2028e Non-GAAP net income estimate by 3%, due to a brighter outlook on loTbusiness.We use a SOTP approach to value the stock. We apply a 23x target PE(unchanged) to value the legacy businesses and use DCF to value the EV businessOur TP implies 68%upside, we thus maintain Buyrating.For the RMB counter (81810HK), we cut our TP to RMB42.63 (from RMB46.73). See p6 for downside risks. *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations ent,Alan Disclosures&Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source:HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote:Pricedatcloseof26May 2026 Source: Canalys, Omdia, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: IDC, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: CPCA, HSBC Qianhai Securities Source: Company data,HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: Xiaomi delisted Su7 series on the ffcial website in Jan 2026 Estimatechanges We revise down our 2026e and 2027e non-GAAP net income estimates by10% and3%expansions,while we lift our2028e non-GAAP net income estimateby3%, dueto a brighteroutlook on loT business. Welowersmartphonerevenueestimatesby2%in2026e,2%in2027e,and3%in2028ebetter product mix with premiumlisation strategy; We lowerautobusiness GPMby0.3ppt in2026, cappedbypurchasetax subsidyand highermaterial costs, and considering the lower AsP of the newly launched Yu7 standard model; company's guidance of accumulated RMB6Obn-plus investment on Al in the next threeyears(source:companydata)We remain positive on Xiaomi given its: 1)smartphone GPM recovery supported by its income estimates are 6%-13% below consensus, given high R&D and depreciation estimateswith Al business expansions, and we are more conservative on a smartphone recovery. Valuationandrisks We continue to use a SOTP approach as we believe the valuation of the EV business isdiffer