小米（1810 HK）：买入：释放定价能力

Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.comMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)76.6073.50SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE51.55+48.6%(as of27 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)1,104,773Free floatMarket cap (USDm)140,944BBG3m ADTV (USDm)2,090RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eHSBC QH EPS1.071.682.00HSBC QH EPS prev1.071.591.89Change (%)0.05.85.8Consensus EPS0.941.431.83PE (x)44.328.223.6Dividend yield (%)0.00.00.0EV/EBITDA (x)30.817.414.2ROE (%)15.420.420.152-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesFrank He* (Reg. No. S1700517120005)Head of A-share Technology Hardware ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedfrank.fang.he@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2009Bingyi Zheng* (Reg. No. S1700521060001)Analyst, A-share Technology HardwareHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedbingyi.zheng@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 21 5066 2028* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesElectronic Equipment &InstrumentsChina05/2411/24Target price: 76.60High: 58.20 Low: 15.82 Current: 51.55Listen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research Podcasts ◆◆◆ 70%1810 HK1810.HK12/2027e2.392.265.82.3719.80.011.219.88.2046.6085.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025eProfit & losssummary(CNYm)Revenue365,906519,179EBITDA29,23950,519Depreciation & amortisation-4,737-5,287Operating profit/EBIT24,50345,231Net interest3,6242,638PBT28,12747,870HSBC QianhaiPBT31,70349,655Taxation-4,548-7,030Net profit23,65840,975HSBC Qianhainet profit27,23542,760Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow fromoperations39,29530,211Capex-8,000-7,500Cash flow from investment-35,386-7,500Dividends00Change in net debt18,481-22,711FCF equity31,29522,711Balancesheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets8,1536,272Tangible fixed assets101,031107,489Current assets225,709259,917Cash & others75,48898,199Total assets403,155441,942Operating liabilities183,347182,734Gross debt30,60330,603Net debt-44,885-67,596Shareholders' funds188,738229,713Invested capital76,05792,746Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue35.041.9EBITDA17.772.8Operating profit22.584.6PBT27.870.2HSBCQianhaiEPS40.357.0Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)6.76.2ROIC40.047.4ROE15.420.4ROA5.69.1EBITDA margin8.09.7Operating profit margin6.78.7EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-23.7-29.3Net debt/EBITDA (x)-1.5-1.3CF from operations/net debtPer share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.931.61HSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)1.071.68DPS0.000.00Book value7.408.85Financials & valuation:Xiaomi Source:CPCA,HSBCQianhai SecuritiesExhibit4.Xiaomi’s quarterly MIUI ARPUsinmainlandChina andoverseasSource:Company data,HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit6. Xiaomi’s quarterly GPM bysegmentSource:Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities0510152025303540451Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25(RMB)APRU in Mainland China0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q21SmartphoneIoT Source:Xiaomi Car App, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit3.Xiaomi’s quarterly MIUI MAUs inmainlandChina and overseasSource:Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit5. Xiaomi’s quarterly revenue bysegmentSource:Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities01002003004005006007008001Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25(mn)MIUI MAU in Mainland China-20,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0001Q193Q191Q203Q201Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q231Q243Q241Q25(RMB m)SmartphoneIoTInternet 1Q222Q223Q22Internet (RHS) ResultssummaryExhibit 7.Xiaomi’s 1Q25 results summary(RMBm)RevenueSmartphoneIoT and lifestyle productsInternet servicesEVOthersTotal revenueGross profitSmartphoneIoT and lifestyle productsInternet servicesOthersTotal gross profitSelling and marketing expenseAdministrative expenseR&D expensesTotal operating expenseEBITNet incomeNon-GAAP netincome (excluding MI)MarginGross marginsSmartphoneIoT and lifestyle productsInternet servicesEVOperating expenseSG&AR&D CostCore business opex ratioNet marginsNon-GAAP net marginSource:Company dataEstimate changesWe fine-tune our estimates for Xiaomi’s smartphonerevenueand raise IoT revenue by 4% in2025eand 3% in 2026eto reflect our positive view on the company’s IoT business growth.Wealso raise our gross margin assumptions by 2.7ppts, 2.7ppts and 2.9ppts for the IoT segment aswe believe the company’s high-end EV model will help its premium IoT product sales.Thus, weraise our net profit estimates by 6%each yearfor2025-27e. Valuation and risksWe continue touse anSOTP approach aswe believe the valuation of the EV business isdifferent from that of the traditional consumer electronics business.◆We estimate a9.8%CAGR for Xiaomi’s legacy businesses (excluding EV) in 2024-27e(from6.3%). We continue to apply the same target PE multiple of 30x–0.5 STD abovehistorical average PE of 25x,as we think Xiaomi is set to benefit from its premiumisationstrategy and is ideally positioned to expand its addressable m