2026年第一季度业绩超预期：强劲的自动驾驶出租车运营及ADCU出货量

Forecast Change China 1Q results beat; raise year-end robotaxifleet size guidance to 3,500 Units Bin Wang Research Analyst+852-220-35496Wei Huang GrowthAbovemarketexpectations,Pony.ai's1Q2026totalrevenueincreased145%YoY to Uss34.3million,driven bystrongperformanceacross its keybusiness lines."Robotaxiservices"revenuegrew395%YoYtoUSs8.6million,withfare-chargingrevenuespecificallygrowing457%YoY.Thiswasprimarilydrivenbythe expandingfleetsizepostthelaunchofthecompany's"Gen-7"robotaximodelandincrementalrevenue contributionsfrom its asset-lightjoint development model (Pony Pilot),aspartnershipswithOnTimeMobilityand Vernebegangeneratingrevenueduringthequarter.The"Intelligentsolutions"segment(licensingandapplications)alsosawrobust growth,with revenue increasing247%YoYto USs15.5million,mainlyattributableto increasedshipments of its autonomous drivingdomain controllers(ADcUs)to customers in low-speed delivery,robosweeping,logistics,andhumanoidrobotics.Concurrently"Robotruck services"revenueincreasedby31%YoY,drivenbya deepened collaborationwith Sinotrans. ResearchAssociate+852-2203-7057 The company demonstrated significant operating leverage,as total quarterlyoperating expenses increased by only 9% YoY despite the triple-digit revenuegrowth.R&D expenses remained flattish YoY (up 1%) at US$ 47.9 million, whileSG&A expenses increased 47%YoYto USs 16.0million.Additionally,investmentincomedeclined47%YoYtoUSs11.8millionfromahighbase,duetoPonybookinga one-off asset disposal gain in 1Q 2025.As a result,Pony.ai's reported net lossincreased slightlyby17%YoYtoUSs50.4million,belowtheconsensusexpectation of Uss 57.9 million. PonyRaises2026GuidanceonStrongOperational MomentumandGlobalExpansionReflecting strong operational momentum, Pony.ai has raised its full-year 2026 targetsforitsrobotaxibusiness.Thecompanynowexpects2026robotaxirevenuetobeaboveUss58million-morethan3.5timesthelevelseenin2025(upfromaprevioustargetof3x)-andhasincreaseditsyear-endrobotaxifleetsizetargetfrom3,000toover3,500units. This strong performance is underpinned bya rapid and geographically diverseinover20citiesgloballybyyear-end2026 (likelyhalfinChinaandhalfoverseas).Thedomesticstrategyistwofold:thecompanyisexpandingitsoperationalareaswithin IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusiness withcompanies covered in its research reports.Thus,investors shouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhave a conflict of interest that could affecttheobjectivity of this report. Investors should considerthis report as onlya singlefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision. Autos & Auto TechnologyPony.ai demonstrated by its recententryinto Guangzhou's core urbanarea Haizhudistrictcovering high-trafficdestinations likeCanton Towerand thePazhouheadquarterscluster, while also solidifying its leadership by expanding into new cities such asHangzhou,Changsha,Dongguang,Zhuhai,Foshan,Zhongshan,etc.Simultaneously,itsoverseasexecutiondemonstratesthetechnology'sadaptabilityacrossdifferent regulatoryandurbanenvironments.Todate,thecompanyhasestablished a presencein9countriesandstartedpublicservices in4overseasmarkets,includingCroatia,Qatar,Singapore,andSouthKorea.Thisprogresssupportsitsplanforrolloutsin~10internationalcitiesduring2026,whichincludestherecentlaunchofEurope'sfirstcommercialrobotaxiserviceinCroatiaandinitialdriverlessdeploymentsinDubai.Tosupportthisfuturelarge-scaledeployment,thecompany is also targeting robotaxi's total Bill of Materials (BOM) cost (vehicle+ADK)ofbelowRMB230,000pervehiclebymid-2027.TakingintoaccountPony'slatestresultsandguidance,wereviseddownourfullyear2026netlossforecastby1.1%, resulting in a higher DCF-derived target price of USs18.00 (from US$17.70). Pony.ai reported a sharpincrease in robotaxi demandduring therecent LaborDay holidayperiod (May1toMay5),withaveragedailypaidrobotaxiorders surgingby544%YoY.Compared withthe earlierNewYearholidayperiod,averagedailypaidbroader trend of accelerating user adoption and robust operating metrics.Underscoring this,the company noted its registered user base had more thantripled YoY as of May,while average weeklypaid orders inMay2026 increased by119%comparedtoJanuary2026.Accordingtothecompany,thisstronggrowthisdriven by both the expansion of its operating fleet and growing consumer Valuation and riskWechooseafive-yearforecastforPonyforourDCF(withfreecashflowoutto2030) inordertocapturethematurationofPony'sproductandserviceofferings.WeapplyaWACCof8.4%forourequityvaluation.Ourkeyassumptionsincludea3.4%costof debt,a 3.5% risk-free rate, a5.0%market risk premium,a beta of 1.0,a 15%incometax rate, 99%equitylequity+debt ratio and a 0.5%terminal growth rate(TGR),consistentwithourregionalcoverage.Ourtargetprice implies50.5x2026EEV/sales,largelyin linewiththepeergroupaverageat2026EEV/sales. Key risks include (1)Tougher-than-expected competition.The autonomous-drivingindustry is highly competitive.Ponyfaces competition with large numbers of bothestablished competitors and