第三财季——是‘兜底’还是‘厨房下沉’？

Zscaler BuyNorth America 27 May 2026 zs us United States ZS.0Q Software F3Q - Kitchen Sink or Sinking Kitchen? Research Analyst+1-212-250-8563 on a combination of F4Q guidance and an early look to FY27.While there wereseveral contributingfactorsthatare logical to us,we understandthefact patterncompetitivecoreSSEmarketopportunity.F3QARRexceededtheStreetmedianby $15mn, a similar magnitude as F2Q, with organic NNARR accelerating to+14%ylyfrom7%lastquarter.However,only$7mnofthebeatwaspassedthrough to the FY (implying a 4Q guide down) and an early look to FY27 ARR andrevenue in the +16-17% range compares with Street at 19% and 20%,respectively Research Associate+1-212-250-6174 Price target (USD) 185175-5%Source: Deutsche Bank The disappointing guidance was framed as prudent in context of two key salesleadersthatdepartedattheendofthequarter,whichonthesurfaceraisesanumber of questions.Sales departures at the end of an F3Q,whether intendedornot,isgenerallyacauseforconcernandsuggestiveofan inabilitytoachievesalestargets. That said, we understand these leaders have both left Zscaler forprivately held Cursor, which presents a unique Al-native opportunity that alsoattracted highly regarded CRO Brian McCarthy from Rubrik back in February.While it's an unusual reason to temper guidance, we understand these were long-tenured seniorleaders withinthe public sector sales organization,and ourcheckssuggest there could be additional turnover as well. A $3.5bn+ business withstrong GTM leadership should be resilient to most organizational change, thoughthis is a bit unusual and unfortunate for Zscaler. An additional layer of conservatismwas alsocalledout relativetothe introductionof a newAi SecOps solution that we lookto learn moreabout at Zenith Live inacoupleofweeks.TheearlyFY27lookwasuncustomaryforZscalerandtherightmove in our opinion, given Street expectations were well acknowledged to be toohigh, especially as a starting point for next year. Underlying assumptions includeconsistentandstrongnetexpansionratesinFY27andwhilemgmt.arebullishonthe new logo growth opportunity, it has been discounted in the early look giventhesalestransition. Aside from all that, there were many bright spots including continued progresswith strong ZT Everywhere additions, Data Security ARR now>$500mn and up30%+ yly, Z-Flex bookings +60% q/q, and ZT Branch ARR tripled yly includinglandingthelargestcustomertodatewith2,000locations.ThecompanyYTDhasbooked ~$900mn in TCV through cloud marketplaces, >100%+ yly as this is anincreasingly important channel and announced the launch of Project Al-Guardian channel. Lastly, from an Al perspective, Al Protect bookings have now exceeded$100mnoverthelasttwelvemonths. its leadership in core SSE, and today's results feed debate around its ability to doso.Thatsaid,wewouldoptimisticallyliketobelievetodayrepresentsaresetfromwhich we can rebuild, and at 21x EV/uFCF(DBe CY27) we are willing to take the(representing ~20% upside to where the shares traded after hours). (+) F3Q ARR of $3,525m/+25.1% y/y was $15m/0.4% ahead of Street median ($3,510m/+24.6% y/y), a touch ahead of the $ beat in F2Q. Within the mix, RedCanary contributed ~s7m to upside in the quarter. Excluding Red Canary,NNARR ($153m) growth accelerated to +13.8% yly (from +7.2% y/y in F2Q),albeit off a ~19pt easier compare. Platform products continued to showencouraging momentum as data security crossed $500m ARR, growing >30%yly, while ZT Branch ARR tripled yly. (+)The company continues to drive broad platform adoption, with 700+ZeroTrust Everywhere customers (adopting components of ZTUsers,ZT Cloud, andZT Branch) vs 550+ exiting F2Q and 210+ in the year-ago period. (+) Non-seat-based solutions contributed just over 30%+ of new ACV in thequarter. ARR for non-seat-based solutions in aggregate impressively grew100%+ yly once again. (+) Z-Flex continues to gain traction with >$480m of TCV bookings in F3Q, up>60% q/q and accounting for ~40% of RP0 bookings in the quarter (vs ~30% inF2Q).Z-Flexhasaccountedfor>s1bn ofbookingsoverthepast12months (vs~$4.7bntotal RPObookings)atanaverageduration of fouryears. (+)F3QRevenueof $850.5m/+25.4%y/youtperformedthe midpointof guidance($835m/+23.2%y/y)by+1.9%/+$15m,broadlyconsistent withtherecentbeatcadence. (+) F3Q NGOl of $196m outperformed guidance ($188m) by $8m/+4.2%and implied NGOM outperformance, with the latter surpassing implied guidanceby5obpsforaconsecutivequarter. Whatwe liked/whatwe'rewatchingontheguide (-) FY26 exit ARR guidance was raised by less than the magnitude of upside inF3Q to $3,745m/+24.2% y/y at the midpoint. Within the mix, Red Canary is stillexpected to contribute $10m to NNARR in F4Q (exiting the year at $137m vs$130m prior guide), while the rest of the business is expected to exit F4Q at~19.5% y/y ARR growth. Mgmt. is including extra prudence into the outlook toaccount for the recent departure of two sales leaders.Positively,an internalcandidate has already stepped into one