Disco Corp 2026年第三财季第四季度：尽管产能受限，出货量依然强劲

+8522918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com +85221232632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com +85221232683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com DISC0 4Q26/3: Strong shipment despite capacity constraint DIScOQ1shipment guidance was strongwith continuedstrength in OSATandmemoryowingtorobustgen A/demand (CoWoS/HBM).WereiterateourOutperformrating. StrongQ1shipmentguidance.DISCO's4QFY26/3shipmentof￥121.7bn (+7%QoQ)was of no surprise given prelim results, but the 1Q guidance shipment of ￥132bn (+8% QoQ)was wellabove consensus of ￥124.Obn.To meetthe strong demand, the company expects toextend the manufacturing support for at least 3 more months. Byapplication,memory outperformed (~30%of shipment) in Q4 vs.guidance of 25%,anddemandisexpectedtoremainrobust,withinvestmentfromChinaOSATbeingstable,andadditionalupsidecomingfrom2.5Dpackagingat globalOSATs.Companyalsodisclosedlogic shipment slightly greater than memory. Margins.Q4GPM was 70.9% (vs.guidance~69%), and OPM was 44.2% (vs.guidance~40%).Q1GPMwasguidedtobe1.5%ptlowerQoQ, likelyduetoconservatism.IRsaidtheydonotseeanyreasonstoexpectmargindeterioration.SG&Awasguidedtobe￥31.5bn withOPM of 39.6% (vs.consensus 43.4%). In terms of impact from geopolitics,company seeslimited impact to their margins. Outperform.WereflectQ4earnings as well asQ1guidance,andraiseFY27/FY28revenueby3.9%/9.3%andbottomlineby6.0%/17.3%,assumingmorecapacitygetsreleased inFY28to address the demand.Keeping the same 4OxP/Emultiple, we raise ourTPto ￥85,000, with 14% upside.Maintain Outperform. InvestmentImplicationsWerateDIScoOutperform(PT?85,000). Source: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. EXHIBIT 2: DISC04Q26 segment summary Source: Company disclosures, Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. O-Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR-Not Rated, CS - Coverage Suspended Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. References to"Bernstein" or the "Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordAfrica Technologies &Services toproduce Bernstein research undera Global Services Agreement inplace between BernsteinandSocieteGenerale otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's"affiliates"”relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. Wesetapricetargetof?85,000usingaP/Emultipleof40xagainstourforwardQ5-Q8EPSestimate. RISKS DiscoCorp resulting inbothmultiple contraction and earningpower(2)Changes in competitive environment (3) Unfavorable exchange ratefluctuation with downside risk to its revenue. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocksbased on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500forReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Largeand Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japanese(ex-Japan)exchanges-unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brandhas three categories of ratings: :Outperform: Stock will outpacethemarket index bymore than 15pp : Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp : Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp predicted,at the present time.The covering analyst may continue to publish researchreports on the companyto update investorson eventsanddevelopments. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage. Bernstein brand stock ratings are based on a 12-month time horizon. TheAutonomousbrandratescommonstocksas indicatedbelow.AsourbenchmarksweusetheBloombergEurope5ooBanks AndFinancialServicesIndex(BEBANKS)andBloombergEuropeDevMktFinancialsLargeandMidCapPriceRetIndexEUR(EDMFI)indexfordeveloped Europeanbanks and Payments,theBloomberg Europe5OOInsuranceIndex(BEINSUR)forEuropeaninsurers, the S&P 5O0 and S&PFinancials for USbanks and Payments coverage, S5LiFE for US Insurance, the S&P InsuranceSelect Industry (SPSllNS) for US Non-Life Insurers coverage, and the Bloomberg Emerging Markets Financials Large, Mid andSmall Cap Price Return Index (EMLSF)for emerging marketbanks and insurers and Payments.Ratings are stated relativeto thesector (not the market). predicted,atthepresenttime.Thecoveringanalystmaycontinuetopublishresearchreportsonthecompanytoupdateinvestorsoneventsanddevelopments. Thosedenotedas‘Feature'(e.g.,Feature OutperformFOP,FeatureUnderOutperformFUP)are ourcore ideas. Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are notunder coverage. Autonomousbrandcommonstock ratings arebasedona12-monthtimehorizon. Autonomousbrand-preferredstocks The Autonomous brand has three cate