2026年第一季度回顾：收入强劲但利润率持续面临压力

Forecast Change China Retail /Wholesale Trade 1Q26 review: strong revenue butmargins continue to face headwinds SammiXu Research Analyst+852-2203-5415 profittogrowatHSD%YoyMiniso's 1Q26 call highlighted positive SSSG guidancefor China and overseas alongsideasolidrevenueoutlook,thoughmargincompressionremainsakeyheadwind. China and high-single-digit (HSD) to low-teens growth for the U.S. marketin 1H26.During the earnings call, management highlighted positivedevelopments in Latin America and Indonesia, following relativelydisappointing performance in 2025. Full-year group level revenue growthguidance remains unchanged at high-teens YoY, with 1H26 revenuegrowth target of 20-22% YoY. Overall, revenue growth remains strong,supported by the recovery in SsSG across Miniso's global markets. MarginPressures:Despiterobustrevenuegrowth,margins continuetobeweigheddownbyashrinkinggrossprofitmargin (GPM),drivenbyahigherrevenue contribution from China (which has a lower margin profile thanoverseasmarkets)andrecentpricingadjustmentstoenhancethe"valueformoney"proposition in the region.Also,increased expenses associatedwiththeexpansionof self-operated stores overseasarealsoweighing onprofitability.Management commented that the adjusted operating profitgrowth could be HSD% when excluding FX gains or losses in 1H26. 2Q26Forecast:Factoring inMiniso's latestresults,weforecast16%YoYrevenue growthand4.7%adjustedoperatingprofitgrowthfor2Q26(or9%if excludingFX impacts).For1H26,weforecast22%YoYrevenuegrowth,and4%adjustedoperatingprofitgrowth(or11%if excludingFXimpacts). Wearemaintaining ourBuy rating onMiniso.The recent sharepricepullbackpresents an attractive entry pointforthis double-digit growth China consumerstock, which is now trading at a compelling 9.7x 2026E P/E with a 5.2% dividendyield.WeforecastaCAGRof14%forrevenueand12%foradjustednetprofitfrom2025to2028E. 1Q26financial resulthighlights: Revenue: 1Q26 revenue growth maintained robust at 28.5% YoY, beatingBloombergconsensusby2%,alsobetterthanpreviousguidanceof25%YoY.Group level SSSG reached+MSD%during theperiod (China SSSG: Retail/Wholesale TradeMiniso GrossProfit:1Q26 gross profit increased by 25.8%YoY,with GPM narrowingto43.4%(-0.9pp).Thismargincompressionstemsfromtwokeydrivers: a greater revenue contribution from the lower-margin Chinabusiness in 1Q26,and recent pricing adjustments designed to enhancevalue-for-moneyappeal.Managementanticipatesthatthesemixshiftsandpricing strategies willcontinuetocompress GPMbya similarmagnitude in2Q26. much slower than revenue growth due to a higher revenue contributionfrom lower-margin, directly operated regions (which surged around 50%YoY).Profitability was further pressured by elevated sales and marketingexpenses tied to branding,proprietary IP marketing, and rising logisticsfees.Consequently,adjustedOPMcontractedby3.3ppYoYto13.3%(vs16.6%in1Q25).ExcludingFX impacts,theadjustedOPM contractionnarrowed to 1.9pp to 14.7% (vs.16.6%in1Q25),Adjusted NetProfit:1Q26 adjusted net profit increased8.1%YoYtoRMB 633.1mn by excluding FX impacts (12%better than BBG consensus),representing a 9.7% adjusted net margin (-3.6 pp YoY; 13.3% in 1Q25).Beginningin2026,theimpactofFXhasbecomemoresignificant.Thus,thecompany has introduced the adjusted net profit metric that excludes theseFX effects.IfFX impacts arenot excluded,theadjusted netprofit showsadecline of 6.2% YoY, 3% behind BBG consensus. ReportedNetProfit:1Q26sawanetprofitofRMB1250.7mn(comparedtoRMB 416mn in 1Q25) due to one-off investment gain in an Al company(recordedfairvalue change of RMB 874.6mn),and share ofprofit from itsYonghui investment (RMB77mn gain). Recentoperational updates:Chinamarket:The China market continuestodeliversolidSSSG due to its IPstrategyandstorerenovations,making itlessvulnerabletothesluggishmacroenvironmentthanitspeers.Membershipsalesplayanimportantrolein maintaining sales momentum,contributing to 73%of purchases.Miniso'sIPs,including YoYo,havealso enteredamature stage.Meanwhile,locations into larger & better stores-which helps support storeproductivity in China. Overseasmarkets:The companybelieves Latin Americaand Europe arestarting to see positive SssG, while the worst looks to be behind inIndonesia.May performance also improved sequentially compared toApril. The U.S. market is also showing positive developments, with its full-year 2026 SSSG expected to be in the LSD%, and US membershippurchases alsohave surpassed50%ofUS sales. Storeopeningplan:The full-year net opening target was revised to 450-550stores(from510-550).Mostof thisadjustmentcomesfromtheChinain better locations while closing smaller, underperforming units. For theMiniso brand,China is expected to net add 60-80 stores,while overseas Profitabilityupdate by region:The China franchise business yieldsa GPMslightly below 40% (with the e-commerce business at 30%level),whileoverseas directly operated stores generate a GPM of around 55%. The Retail /Wholesale TradeMiniso catertovalue-for-mo