JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD): 2025年第一季度回顾在转型中前行，但面临财务压力

2023A2024A2025E4,446.53,775.53,215.4-0.79(0.08)-3,775.63,186.31.850.79(0.37) 2026E3,332.00.333,293.3(0.25) Philip Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7369 | png@jefferies.comFiona Shang * | Equity Associate(212) 336-7447 | fshang@jefferies.comMaggie Grady Miller, CPA * | Equity Associate(212) 284-3472 | mgrady1@jefferies.com The Long View: JELD-WENInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•As one of two large players in the NA door market, JELD is exposed to newconstruction and residential R&R markets, which are experiencing softnessin demand that is likely to persist in medium term.•The new mgmt team has delivered better execution on cost andproductivity initiatives.•JELD announcing it will implement $100 mil transformation infinitivesand $50 mil market headwind mitigation actions in 2025 should beviewed positively as the company continues to prune noncore businesses.Also, JELD is focusing on core assets in NA and Europe. That said, theunfavorable macro condition is likely to persist until 2026.Base Case,$3.75, -7%•Sales decline by low teens % YOY in 2025 afterTowanda divestiture.•The manufacturing closures will generatepositivepretax income in 2025,with solidreturn.•2025E Adj EBITDA margin of 4.1%.•2025E EBITDA: $132 mil; Target Multiple: 11.1x;Price Target $3.75.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Product Design & Lifecycle Management.Prioritize products from sustainablysourced materials that can be recycled or repurposed at the end of their useful life.2) Materials Sourcing& Efficiency.JELD should consider the resiliency of supply chain materials to climate change risk orsocial externalities.3) GHG Emissions.Reduce the carbon impact from its manufacturing process.4)Employee Health & Safety.Create and maintain a safe and clean work environment.Company Target(s):No specific targets.Qs to Mgmt: 1)When do you expect to publish concrete targets related to your ESG objectives, andwhat metrics are you primarily focused on for initial targets?2)How do you evaluate suppliers forenvironmental and sustainability risks and how does that factor into supplier relationships?3)How doyou balance sustainability and growth objectives in your business model?ESG Sector Deep Dive: Building ProductsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$6.00, +49%•Sales decline by LDD YOY in 2025.•Cost benefits, productivity and manufacturinginitiatives contribute more meaningfully andfaster than expected.•2025E Adj EBITDA margin of 4.5%.•2025E EBITDA: $144 mil; Target Multiple: 11.5x;Price Target: $6. Downside Scenario,$3.00, -26%•Further headwinds to volumes due to a housingmarket contraction and the “higher for longer”rates environment.•JELD sees pricing slip and experiencesmeaningful share loss.•Poor execution and ongoing operationalchallenges.•2025E EBITDA: $128 mil; Target Multiple: 10.8x;Price Target: $3.Catalysts•Sharp recovery in residential constructionmarkets. Traction on price increases in USdoors.•Reacceleration of housing starts in the USwould provide upside to the top line.•Cost-reductioninitiativesexpansion. drivemargin2 Chart 1 - JELD Annual Earnings Model.JELD-WENAnnual Earnings ModelPhilip Ng, CFA 212-336-7369($ in millions, except per share data)North American SalesAdj EBITDAMargin - %European SalesAdj EBITDAMargin - %Austalasian SalesAdj EBITDAMargin - %Corporate ExpenseTotal SalesEBITDAMargin - %Depreciation & AmortizationEBITMargin - %Interest expense, netOther expense (income)Pretax IncomeMargin - %Income tax expense (benefit)Tax Rate - %Income from continuing operations, net of taxEquity earnings of non-consolidated entitiesDiscontinued operations, net of taxNet IncomeMargin - %Convertible preferred stock dividendsNet income (loss) attributable to commonDiluted EPSGrowth - YOY %Diluted SharesSource: Company Data, Jefferies EstimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 2 - JELD Quarterly Earnings Model.JELD-WENQuarterly Earnings ModelPhilip Ng, CFA 212-336-7369($ in millions, except per share data)North American SalesAdj EBITDAMargin - %European SalesAdj EBITDAMargin - %Austalasian SalesAdj EBITDAMargin - %Corporate ExpenseTotal SalesEBITDAMargin - %Depreciation & AmortizationEBITMargin - %Interest expense, netOther expense (income)Pretax Income% MarginIncome tax expense (benefit)Tax Rate (%)Income from continuing operations, net of taxEquity earnings of non-consolidated entitiesDiscontinued operations, net of taxNet Income% marginConvertible preferred stock dividendsNet income (loss) attributable to commonDiluted EPS% growthDiluted SharesSource: Company Data, Jefferies EstimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution