Bath & Body Works Inc. 2025年第一季度回顾：新领导层专注于盈利增长

Restricted - External BBWIEQUAL WEIGHTUnchangedU.S. Specialty Retail,Apparel & FootwearNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 30.00lowered -14% from USD 35.00Price (28-May-25)USD 30.48Potential Upside/Downside-1.6%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)6492Shares Outstanding (mn)213.01Free Float (%)99.3752 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)4.9Dividend Yield (%)2.62Return on Equity TTM (%)N/ACurrent BVPS (USD)-6.41Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 52.98-24.96Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingU.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel &FootwearAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.comBCI, USPaul Kearney+1 212 526 1964paul.kearney@barclays.comBCI, USAngus Kelleher+1 212 526 0081angus.kelleherferguson@barclays.comBCI, US Quarter in review.1Q25 EPS of $0.49 and sales of $1.424bn landed in-line with the pre-annoucement provided 5/19/25. GM of 45.4% exceeded expectations of 44.2% due to a 100bpsimprovement in merchandise margin on LSD mix-adjusted AUR increases. This was partiallyoffsetby OpEx of 30.7%, which was higher than consensus of 29.8%, due to incrementalinvestments in marketing and store associate training. The company also provided 2Q25guidance and largely reiterated its FY25 guidance. Both sets of guidance include the anticipatedimpact of all currently enactedtariffrates, and exclude the expected impact of the CEOtransition. For 2Q25, the company sees EPS of $0.33 - $0.38 (consensus $0.42), which factors in:sales growth flat to up +2% (consensus +2.6%); GM of ~41% (consensus 40.9%); SG&A of ~30%(consensus 29.3%) inclusive of wage rate inflation and investments in technology; net non-operating expense of ~$65mn; and tax rate of ~29%. For FY25, the company sees EPS of $3.25 -$3.60 (consensus $3.57), which factors in: sales growth of +1% to +3% (consensus +2.5%); GM of~44% (consensus 44.1%); SG&A of ~27.5% (was ~27% in prior guidance and consensus is 27.0%);net non-operating expense of ~$255mn; and tax rate of ~26%.Inventory.Based on our proprietary inventory analysis, BBWI has posted two consecutivequarters of negative sales-to-inventory growth. In FY1Q25 the Inventory Management Spread("IM Spread") was (229) basis points and improved from (410) basis points in the prior quarter.BBWI's Gross Margin Return on Inventory ("GMROI") has worsened for two consecutive quarters,and its Operating Margin Return on Inventory ("OMROI") has improved for one quarter.Lowering estimates and PT to $30 (from $35).Our FY25, FY26, and FY27 adj. EPS estimatesare $3.34 (from $3.58), $3.71 (from $3.86), and $4.00 (from $4.10), respectively, as we layer inhighertariffrates for 2H25 and reduce our GM. Our PT of $30 (from $35) is based on an 8xmultiple (from 9x) applied to our FY26 adj. EPS estimate of $3.71 (from $3.86). We lower ourmultiple on consumer uncertainty and as we note FY25 earnings guidance includes a de-factoreduction at the midpoint when assuming currenttariffrates prevail, which a majority of ourcompanies have been assuming as the guidance baseline. We further note our multiple isapproximately in line with the current NTM Street P/E multiple of ~7.7x.2 Summary Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Proprietary PRISM Curve: BBWI in "ESCAPE" Mode; Potential "HUNT"Phase Ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7TariffExposure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Inventory Management Spread, GMROI, and OMROI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Variance Table. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Model Changes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13P&L. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Summary ResultsFIGURE 1. Retail Earnings Quality Score (in $ millions, except per share data)Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg Consensus, Barclays Research estimates29 May 2025 FIGURE 2. Phases of PRISM Curve: BBWI in "ESCAPE" Mode; Potential "HUNT" Phase AheadProprietary PRISM Curve: BBWI in "ESCAPE" Mode;Potential "HUNT" Phase AheadFrom a fundamental perspective, we use our proprietary PRISM cycle as a leading indicator ofpotential sales inflection (i.e., either from positive to negative or negative to positive). OurPRISM Curve attempts to look for fundamental changes in the business model of a company,driven by proactive management decisions to stabilize margins (e.g., purge inventory, cut costs,share best practices, invest in product and brand). Figure 2 and Figure 3 below depict our modelgraphically and identify where we would theoretically expect to see sales and margin changesalong the business model curve.In the ESCAPE Phase (StrategicallyOffensive);Potential "HUNT" Phas