数据中心/电力/超大规模计算：1Q联合分析师复盘会议 - 我们听到的内容

USA I Software Datacenters/Power/Hyperscalers:1QJointAnalyst Recap Call- What We've Heard Julien Dumoulin-Smith,Paul Zimbardo and Jonathan Petersen,who coverEnergyandDatacentercompanies.SeeattachedforourAl&Capexslideswewill gothroughon the call.We hopeyou can join us onFriday,May8 at 1p ET!Registerhere. Date: Friday, May 8th, 2026 Brent Thill - US Technology/lnternet - Lead AnalystJulien Dumoulin-Smith - US Power, Utilities, Midstream & Clean Energy - Lead AnalystPaul Zimbardo - US Power, Utilities, Midstream & Clean Energy - Lead AnalystJonathan Petersen -US REITs &Digital Infrastructure-Lead Analyst Cloud at Full Throttle: $2T Backlog, Growth Acceleration & Margin Expansion Total cloud backlog increased $376 billion q/q to ~$2 trillionDriven by G00GL's $225B q/q add in total backlog, followed by AMZN at S120B (though would be $220B if included Anthropic deal) While MsFT bookings growth paled vs. peers, we expect better growth in seasonally strong F4Q All engines firing in Cloud: GcP stealing the spotlightGOOGL GCP posted the largest share gain with 70% growth (JEFe), a 16pt accel on a 2pt easier comp AMZN AwS growth accelerated 4pts to 28%, although shy of ~30% investor bogeysMSFT's Azure grew 39% CC (40% reported), hitting the high end of guide and expected to show modest accel in CY2H26 BettermarginsacrosstheboarddespiteheavyAl investments 2 AWS opm expanded to ~38% in Q1 from 35% in Q4, reflecting efficiency flywheel across Al, fulfillment, and utilizationG00GL reached 41.9% opm (off net rev), with Google cloud margin nearly doubling to ~33% over the last 4QsMSFT margins expanded ~60bps y/y to 46.3%, and mgmt. continues to anticipate operating income growth in double-digits in FY27 AMZN, followed by MSFT have best risk/reward in mega-cap cloud post Q1; but stay long GOOGL despite premium valuation AMZN's 6x valuation gap to GOOGL (13x vs. 19x EBITDA) = better entry point, but don't sleep on GOOGL's AI flywheelMSFT multiple has gone from at start of year 28x to 22x NTM PE despite modest accel across both M365 & Azure + DD% rev & opincome growth! No Signs of Capex Slowing: Mega Clouds Added $52B to CY26 Plans Post-Q1 We expect Big 3 + META & ORCL CY26E capex growth will remain roughly flat y/y at 74% vs. CY25, albeit over a much larger CY25 base Specifically,we have increased our combined CY26E capex estimates by $52B or 8%following CY1Q26 earnings MSFT - Strong AI demand & massive RPO leads to elevated capex rampMSFTguidedCY26capexto$190Bvsourpriorestsof S154B,or S36Bhigher,and implies61%y/y increase The increase is partly due to the impact of higher component pricing (accounting for s25 billion) AMZN-Maintained guide of $200B Mgmt maintained guided FY26 capex of s200B, implying y/y growth of 56%Doubled down on Trainium economics; tens of sBns in annual capex savings & a several-hundred-bps margin edge vs. peers META-RaisedFY26Capexguideto$125-145B The absolute dollar increase of S62B in FY26 will be notably higher than FY25's S$34BWeraisedFY26capexestimateby10BtoS135B G00GL - Raised FY26 Capex guide to $180-190B 5 Increased capex guide by s5B to s185B at midpoint; we raised our capex estimate to 103% y/y growth from 96%Mgmtexpectsa"significantincrease"inFY27capexcomparedtoFY26 bugndauunoeunHspuSoftware Coverage Added in All of CY25 Software Sentiment Under Pressure as OpenAI & Anthropic Scale ANTHROPIC ISeeing Explosive Growth OPENAI I Picking Up Steam >S31B >2xGPT-5.5 NETNEWARRADDEDYEAR-TO-DATE API REV GROWTH VS.ANY PRIOR LAUNCH OAl hit its aggressive Q1 plan with strength across everymajorpartofthebusiness;enteringQ2withmomentumtoraiserevenue expectationsforthe rest of theyear ■ Added >50% of the net new ARR our 63-company publicSWuniverseex-MSFTaddedinCY25-injust4months Public SW added $58B in net new ARR in CY25, whileAnthropic, now reportedly closer to s40B ARR, has added~$31B YTD alone. Codexdoublingrevin<7days;ClaudeCodeuptime99.18%vs.99.98%forCodexamidtoken, compute&tech-debt constraints AMZN & ORCL now offer direct GPT API access, reducingreliance on MSFT as the only major enterprise channel Saw80xannualizedgrowthinrevenue&usageinQ1 OAl hasraisedmateriallymorecapital&capacitythanAnthropic - an advantage that has grown clearer in recentweeks Insatiable Compute Demand is Only Increasing Compute =Revenue:Bullish AMZN, GOOGL,MSFT,ORCL&CRWV We planned for a world of 10x growth per year. In the first quarter of this year, we saw80x (annualized) growth per year in revenue and usage. That is the reason we haddifficulties with compute. - Anthropic CEO, 5/5/26 If you're installing 1 gigawatt of compute, the ratio, the percentage of the CpU as part ofthat gigawatt will increase. Some of the conversation in the industry has been about CPUto GPU ratios and it's very hard to call exactly, but we certainly see the movement towardswhere in the past, the CPU to GPU ratio was primarily just as a host node in like a 1:4 or 1:8even imagine if you get lots and lots of