汽车半导体周期追踪：2026年第一季度——需求复苏下价格上涨正在进行

Auto Semis Cycle Tracker 1Q26: Price hikes underway as demand Our quarterly series on the auto semis cycle suggests the upcycle is gaining momentum,with auto semis revenue accelerating this quarter (+11% YoY). Most companies expectpositive QoQ growth in Q2, and auto semis to increase in 2026. Beyond the cyclical recovery, David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.comStacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Price hike is underway.Since the beginning of the year, analog companies haveannounced price increases to their customers. IFX, TI, and NXP have even announceda second wave of increases. We expect analog companies to continue raising prices,supported by several drivers: (1) AI server power consumes significant semi capacity with Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Management commentary also turned modestly more positive.For CYQ2, 7 out of 10companies now expect QoQ auto growth, and 9 out of 10 now expect auto revenue growthin 2026. The sector is moving beyond stabilization and into a gradual upcycle, althoughevidence of a broad-based restocking wave is still limited. Structural semi content growth Aleksander Peterc+33 1 57 29 45 25aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com We like Renesas for the fundamentals (AI power, memory interface IC, analogrecovery and price hike) and on valuation.Renesas trades at the lowest PE of 19xamong the coverage of analog names, and there are 2 additional upsides: 1. Renesasagreed to sell its timing business to SiTime. Now SITM share price doubled. 2. Wolfspeedpotential upside. As discussed here, increasing shareholder return would help Renesasstock rerate.We also like IFX for the AI power growth and price hike. We also rate Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com While analog IDMs saw a modest contraction through the downturn, the broader auto semismarket still grew to US$87bn in 2025, driven by rising memory and SoC demand linked toADAS content.This has shifted market share toward players such as Micron, Nvidia,and QCOM, with MU entering the top 5,while IFX continued to stand out in auto MCUs, Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com The auto end market remains soft. S&P Global now expects vehicle units to declineby 2% in 2026, with only a modest recovery in 2027/28, while China vehicle SAAR hasalso slowed materially. Against that backdrop, analog IDMs continue to expect growth tocome primarily from rising content per car rather than from unit growth. BEV penetration Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com US$/car and units/car content were up in the quarter, with dollar content above historicaltrend. Units/car content grew and remained mostly on trend in the quarter.Auto semisinventory days remain elevatedand rose this quarter to 167 days from 166 in Q4. Forfoundries, TSMC auto revenue dipped in 1Q26 after starting to recover in 2025, Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Infineon (Outperform, EUR 74.00):We rate Infineon Outperform with PT of EUR 74.00. Renesas (Outperform, JPY 4,200.00):We rate Renesas Outperform with PT of JPY 4,200.00. NXPI (Market-Perform, $270.00):The pace of recovery remains open for debate, with likely less torque in a cyclical rebound. TXN (Market-Perform, $250.00):TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. ADI (Market-Perform, $430.00):ADI is executing well with both cyclical and idiosyncratic drivers, though the shares remainexpensive. QCOM (Market-Perform, $140.00):While memory headwinds are pressuring smartphone builds, underlying dynamics stilllook solid, and the shares are extremely cheap. NVDA (Outperform, $315.00):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible. TSMC (Outperform, NT$2,780.00):We are constructive on the long-term prospects on AI and TSMC’s ability to capture itsbenefit. UMC (Underperform, NT$47.00):Competition from China remains a long-term risk. Vanguard (Market-Perform, NT$94.00):Competition from China remains a long-term risk, but valuation is undemanding. Silergy (Outperform, TWD 600.00): Silergy is China’s leading power-analog player. We believe it is a high-quality namebenefiting from analog localization and the demand growth from auto/AI. Melexis (Outperform, €72.00)We rate Melexis Outperform, with a DCF-based PT set at €72.00 X-FAB (Market-Perform, €5.00)We rate X-FAB Market-Perform with a DCF-based PT set at €5.00. Soitec (Outperform, €150.00)We rate Soitec Outperform with a DCF-based PT set at €150.00. DETAILS RELATED RESEARCH •10 Mar 2026 - Auto Semis Cycle Tracker 4Q25: YoY Growth Returns, but Management