半导体：模拟领域 – PMIC复苏正在进行；RF处于转型期

Semiconductors Analog sector–PMICrecoveryunderway; RF We highlight a growing divergence within the analog semiconductor space. Thepowermanagement IC(PMIC) and signal chain markets are stabilizing after asevere downturn, entering a cyclical recovery phase. In contrast, the mobile China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk PMIC &signalchain:Cyclicalinflection. The global analog market isrecovering,as representedby Texas Instruments'(TXN US)three roundsof price adjustments in 2025, which mark the end of the intense price warand set the stage for margin recovery. WSTS projects modest globalYoYanalog revenuegrowth of 3% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, yet lagging AI-driven Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Thecompetitive landscape is being reshaped by supply chainregionalization, market bifurcation (broad SKU coverage vs. system-critical We reiterate our BUY rating on BaTeLab (2149 HK, TP:HK$93.0),foritsscalableSKU expansion strategy,resilient margins and attractive RFFE:Mobile bottoming,auto accelerating.The mobile RFFE marketdeclined 11% YoY in 2024by revenueto US$15.4bn, per Yole.We forecastonly 2% YoY growth in 2025/26E, asRFFEcontent gainsin 5G mobilephonesare offset by architectural simplification, BOM pressure, and pricingcompetition.We believeameaningful rebound awaits 6G later this decade.Conversely,automotive RFFE is a key growth area(17%2023-29E Consolidationdefinesstrategy:The market remains highly consolidated(Top 5: >80% share). Strategic shifts are underway: theSkyworks-Qorvomergeraims for scale and reduced Apple exposure; Chinese vendors We maintain our HOLD rating on Maxscend (300782 CH,TP: RMB81.5),viewing 2025-26E as transitional years in its fab-lite journey, with margin Global analog market–PMIC and signal chain ICs Cyclical recovery amid structural reshaping Followingthe 2021-2022 supply shortage,a severe inventory overhang led TexasInstruments (TI) to initiate widespread price cuts in 2023, triggering a sector-wide price war.As a result, the market declined 9% YoY in 2023 and contracted a further 2% in 2024, perWSTS, pressured by inventory overhang and weak demand. Key players,including TI, A cyclical inflection appears underway.A modest 4% recovery in industry-wide revenueduring 1H25, alongside normalized inventory levels, suggests the sector isstabilizing. TI’sthree rounds of price adjustments in2025 (June, August, September),affecting tens ofthousands of SKUs,signal that channel destocking has concluded. We see this asthe end That said, the rebound remains muted relative to logic and memory segments, which aresurging on AI-driven demand.WSTS projects the analog market will grow only 3% in Source:WSTS,CMBIGM In contrast, China’s analog market is set to significantly outpace global growth,withFrost & Sullivan forecasting 13% expansion in 2025 and 11% in 2026. This strength isunderpinned by demand recovery, new applications in strategic sectors, and a persistent Growthdrivers are diverging, with automotive electronics and network/computingemerging as the primary engines,each projected to grow 17% YoY in 2026(perF&S),fueledby vehicle electrification and data center build-outs.By comparison,mature Source:Company filings, Wind, Bloomberg,CMBIGM Source:Company filings, Wind, Bloomberg,CMBIGM Competitive landscape:reshaped by regionalization, market Texas Instruments (TXN US)remains the global analog leader, with ~US$12bninanalog revenue in 2024, accounting for an estimated15% market share(WSTS),downfrom ~19% five yearsearlier, reflecting both heightened competition and geopolitical China’s analog market remains highly fragmented, with the top five players holdingonly ~28% share.While international suppliers still lead, domestic vendors are gaining Looking ahead, we expect the competitive paradigm to be reshapedby threestructural forces: Supply chain regionalization:building resilience over efficiency.Structuraldisruptions, from geopolitical tensions to pandemic-era bottlenecks, are fragmentingthe global analog market, driving a shift from“Just-in-Time”to“Just-in-Case”supply Market bifurcation: the“long-tail”meets the“high-end”.The analog sector’sinherent characteristics reinforce this divergence. It remains along-tail business, with ~80% of revenue derived from products each contributing≤0.1%of total sales.Product life cycles also far outlast those of logic chips,~50% of ADI’s revenuecomes from products over ten years old, underscoring the value of reliability over node Source:Frost & Sullivan,companyfilings,CMBIGMNote: SKUdataas of 2024year-end Source:Frost & Sullivan,Prismark,companyfilings,CMBIGM While broad SKU coverage remains a key barrier,competition is increasinglyshifting from quantity to quality.Chinese vendors are expanding their portfoliosandachieving base-level certifications, butglobal leaders such as TI and ADI continueto dominate system-criticalsegment