低轨卫星宽带服务的全球价值（英）

A REPORT BY OXFORD ECONOMICS ECONOMICS Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as acommercial venture with Oxford University’s businesscollege to provide economic forecasting and modellingto UK companies and financial institutions expandingabroad. Since then, we have become one of theworld’s foremost independent global advisory firms,providing reports, forecasts, and analytical tools onmore than 200 countries, 100 industries, and 8,000cities and regions. Our best-in-class global economicand industry models and analytical tools give us anunparalleled ability to forecast external market trendsand assess their economic, social, and business impact. Executive summary..................................................................................... 02Section 1.Introduction................................................................................06Section 2.Broadband infrastructure gaps and thedigital divide..............................................................................................10Section 3.Internet connectivity and socioeconomic outcomes... 24Section 4.Bridging the divide: how LEO satellites cantransform connectivity...........................................................................32Section 5.The economic benefits of LEO-enabledinternet access..........................................................................................38Section 6.Quantifying the potential economic benefits.................44Section 7.Challenges to unlocking the potential ofLEO Satellites...............................................................................54Appendix:Methodology..................................................................58Appendix:Selected Country Vignettes..........................................62 Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regionalcentres in New York, London, Frankfurt, and Singapore,Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in AbuDhabi, Belfast, Chicago, Dubai, Dublin, Hong Kong, LosAngeles, Mexico City, Milan, Paarl, Paris, Philadelphia,Sydney, Tokyo, and Toronto. We employ 700 staff,including more than 450 professional economists,industry experts, and business editors—one of thelargest teams of macroeconomists and thoughtleadership specialists. Our global team is highly skilledin a full range of research techniques and thoughtleadership capabilities from econometric modelling,scenario framing, and economic impact analysis tomarket surveys, case studies, expert panels, and webanalytics. Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate,financial, and government decision-makers andthought leaders. Our worldwide client base nowcomprises over 2,500 international organisations,including leading multinational companies andfinancial institutions; key government bodies and tradeassociations; and top universities, consultancies, andthink tanks. EXECUTIVESUMMARY BRIDGING THE DIVIDE: HOW LOWEARTH ORBIT SATELLITE TECHNOLOGYCAN SUPPORT CONNECTIVITY ANDECONOMIC GAINS Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites offer a uniquesolution to extend internet connectivity to ruraland remote areas at lower cost.While closingthe digital gap in access and usage will requirea mix of technologies—including fibre, mobile(4G/5G), fixed-wireless, and satellite—LEO satellitespresent an opportunity because of their abilityto reach hard-to-serve areas at a relatively lowercost. Positioned closer to Earth than traditionalsatellites (which operate at an altitude twentytimes greater),8 LEO systems deliver high speedsand low latency that, in suitable conditions—such as unobstructed sky views, limited networkcongestion, and adequate satellite coverage—canapproach fibre-like performance. Moreover, LEOservices can be deployed quicker to the end user inremote or sparsely populated regions because theyrely less on extensive on-ground networks thantraditional fibre networks.9Subscribers receive adish and modem, which they can install themselveswith no need for specialised engineers or experts.10 For 2.6 billion people worldwide,1the digital economy remains out ofreach. Closing this connectivity gap could unlock over USD 800 billionin economic value and transform lives through education, healthcare,economic opportunity, across the globe. THE CHALLENGE OF GLOBAL BROADBAND CONNECTIVITY Rural communities globally, especially in middle and low-income countries, havebeen chronically underserved—or not served at all—by fixed broadband providers.Structural factors, when combined, weaken the expected return on investmentfrom traditional broadband services. Throughout this report, traditional broadbandservices refer to fixed, terrestrial broadband networks such as fibre, cable, and DSL.Paying back the costs associated with building and maintaining fixed broadbandnetworks is commensurately more challenging in less densely populated areas. Broadband access remains unaffordable for consumers in many countries aroundthe world.According to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), 32%of the world