易捷航空：受制于燃油价格及欧洲内部供需平衡，维持市场表现评级，目标价3.50英镑

easylet: At the mercy of fuel and the intra-Europe supplydemand balance. Remain Market-Perform, TP 3.50 easyJet's H1 results were in line with thetrading statement from early April.Forward-lookingcommentarywas consistent withRyanair'sfromearlierin theweek:RASKtrackingdown MSDinFQ3andmorestableintopeaksummer.Intowinter,asmarginsfallandhedgeprotectionsoftens,weexpectcuts maybe neededto defend contribution.Movements in fuelcurveswill mattermost near-term,and fornowthe airline is hostage to geopolitics.Remain Market-Perform, TP 3.50. Quarter:Loss inline,smallcapacity reduction.easyJet reportedanH1'26lossbeforetaxof 552m, in line with the trading statement from April. Summer capacity is very modestlyreduced,witha2%reductionincapacity(ASK)comingfromshorterstagelengthwithreductionsinTurkey,CyprusandEgypt.SeatcapacityisjustO.3%lower.ThecompanyseesH2CASKx upLSD,FQ3RASK todate down-4% (broadly similar commentary to Ryanair),and Holidays customersgrowing doubledigit. Dependent on the intra-EU market.The intra-European market has not yet seenmeaningful capacity adjustments,and is likely to takea hit to profitability,with limited abilityto price up. Winter visibility remains low, and we expect lower contribution margins, reducedhedge protection,and a potential hitto consumer confidence to increase the likelihoodof capacity cuts. easyjet has neither Ryanair's margin superiority,nor the contribution-supportive connecting traffic of legacy carriers. We see the accelerated retirement of theA319 fleet as a sensible defensivemove. Remain MP.As a single-digit margin airline, profitability is highly sensitive to fuel prices, withthis driving weaker earnings in FY26-27. At the same time, the group is entering a periodof elevated capex and negative free cash flow,driven by necessaryfleet renewal. Althoughtempersthenear-term outlook. Investment Implications We reduce our forecasts and remain Market-Perform, TP f3.50, retaining our preference forthe higher-margin, more defensive IAG and Ryanair.AdjustedEPSF25AF26EF27EFinancialsF25AF26EF27E easyJet:The window of opportunity has closed INVESTMENT THESISeasyJet is a hybrid carrier;notquitelow-cost,but also notalegacy airline.Thegroup skews towardsloconstrainedprimaryiortwhritompesmorwithnetworkairinsOnth Recommendation:Market-perform otherhanditdoesnotengageinJVsorconnectingtravel(barsomevirtual interlining)aslegaciesdo.Demandlooks fine;however,therearerisksof legacies andultra-low-costcarriers(ULcCs)competing moreaggressively.Thegroup has also growneasyJetHolidays inthelastfewyearsanasset-ight,variable-costpackageholidaysbusinessthat isbecominganimportantearningscontributorandenhancestheappealofthegroup,potentiallycontributing>50%ofgroupeaingsbytheendofthedcade.Againstthebackdropofthecrisiseasyetbenefitsfromanet-cashbalancesheetandHolidays,butremainshighlymacro-exposedwithalowest-marginmodel.easyJetHolidaysgets betterandbetter.Holidays is an exciting business on theback of Target price 12 (Months):3.50 (0% downside) strongeisuredemanditmade38MnofprofitinFY2211MninF23190MninFY24andistargeting25%growthin2025whilestllbeingnowherecloseofinishedexpanding.Thbusinesshashelpfuleconomicsfortheairinegroup:verylowoperatingleverage(96%ofvariableosandit'sasset-lighinact,assegativesitwnsnohotelsorrtsandenjoys a negativeworking capital position.Acustomeracquisitioncostadvantage is supportive philosophiesmorethanonceinthepasmostrecenty inthemid-201swhenitpivotedfromthe standard LCC model of adding routes and capacity onanassessment of near-term profitpotential,totryingtobuild shares in primaryairports suchasLondonGatwick,GenevaMilanMalpensa,Amsterdam,andParis (bothairports).Thelogic:medium-to long-termandfacingcompetitionmainlyfromhigh-costlegacycarriers.Itisnowbetweenthosewopositions:addingmoreleisureroutesandevenmovingoutofsomeprotectedairportswheretheeconomics are insufficient(notably surrenderingslotsat Amsterdam). Reduced to3.50,based on7.3xEPSmultiple PRINCIPAL CATALYST Strongerfares and yieldsfrom both strongdemand and lowercapacity,permanentmovetowardshigheryieldingbase Better-than-expected Holidays performance with rapidlygrowing leisure segmentsPotentialacquisition of easyJetbyanotherairlineReplacingA320ceowithA320neo improves bothunitrevenue andunit costs constraints in Europeanaviation,valuationdislocation versus Ryanair,andthelong-termbenefitsoffleetrenewalHoweverthiswindowisclosingaseasyet'ssingledigitmarginsandhighfuelexposureamplifydownsiderisksinaweakermacroenvironmentLimitedscopeforyieldexpansion,potential demand sotening,andrisingfuel volatilityleaveFY26-27earningsmateriallybelowFY25Atthesametimeanincreasinglycapital-intensiveNerefleetingappeal. RISK TO AN INVESTMENT fullyleverageitamidrenewedcompettivepressurefromlegacies Macroheadwinds limitdemand,andfuelcosts weighonearnings Hybrid model failing; eayet competing with pure lowcostplayersforitsfuturegrowth.Economicdownturnsleadoconsumerdowntradingtocheaperholidays Rising carboncosts hurting easyJetmoretha