当数字系统失败：关于我们数字世界隐藏风险的专家报告

When digital systems fail Foreword As digital systems become ever more central to our lives, the risks that threaten themincreasingly transcend sectors, institutions, and borders. Critical digital disruptions, whetherdriven by natural hazards, infrastructure failure, or systemic interdependencies, can spill over at This report confronts a growing paradox. While digital infrastructure has brought extraordinaryefficiency, connectivity, and resilience to everyday life, it has also created new forms of systemicvulnerability.They unfold quietly,across interdependent systems,until critical functions Developed through a co-creation process with international experts, this report makes visiblethe hidden dependencies and knock-on effects that standard risk assessments tend to overlook. The report reflects a joint effort by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UnitedNationsOffice for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR),and Sciences Po Paris School of As digital interdependence deepens faster than our ability to govern it, collaboration is no Doreen Bogdan-MartinSecretary-General, Arancha GonzálezDean of the Paris Schoolof International Affairs, Kamal KishoreSpecial Representative ofthe UN Secretary-Generalfor Disaster Risk Reduction, When digital systems fail Acknowledgements This report is the product of a structured co-creation process built on the iterative andsubstantive input of an international panel of senior experts. The process was led by Jan Verlin(Associate Professor, University Jean Moulin Lyon 3/Sciences Po–CrisisLab/Ecole NormaleSupérieure–Chair in Geopolitics of Risk), the lead author of this report and co-chaired byHumbulani Mudau (Chief Executive Officer, South African National Space Agency) and ÖyküIşık (Professor of Digital Strategy & Cybersecurity, IMD Business School). It is built on theknowledge, experience, and critical engagement of a core expert group: Natalie Black (Group This process was made possible through the support and commitment of three institutionalpartners.At the International Telecommunication Union(ITU),the lead author and thecontributors thank Secretary-General Doreen Bogdan-Martin and Deputy Secretary-GeneralTomas Lamanauskas for their leadership, as well as Andrés Figoli for his expertise on submarinecable infrastructure, Jorge Ciccorossi for his contributions on space radiocommunicationsystems, and Hannah Brügmann for coordinating the entire process with dedication andeffectiveness. At the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), the authors Finally, the authors would like to express their appreciation to the students from the Master inTechnology and Global Affairs at Sciences Po PSIA who participated actively in the co-creationprocess: Alexander Davies, Noa Hajji, Ariel Nzembe, Antoine Roux de Luze, Paola GarciaMunoz, Sehee Lim, Bronwen Schriml, Wendi Gjata, Naomi Kurian, Adrian Gao, Paloma Lier, Inès When digital systems fail Table of contents Foreword ....................................................................................................................................iiAcknowledgements.................................................................................................................... iiiExecutive summary ....................................................................................................................vPart 1:Scenarios of critical digital failures .........................................................................1Space .................................................................................................................................2Terrestrial ..........................................................................................................................4Undersea ...........................................................................................................................6Shared patterns of systemic digital risks........................................................................8Part 2:Understanding critical digital risks..........................................................................9Four infrastructure domains and their interdependencies ..........................................10Compound risks and the limits of current frameworks................................................14Conclusion and recommendations................................................................................16Bibliography..............................................................................................................................17Glossary ...................................................................................................................................18Disclaimer.................................................................................................................................19 When digital systems fail Executive summary What if, tomorrow, mobile phones and the internet stopped working, pa