2026浮躁时代的 “耐心资本”：长期机构投资关键主题研究报告

Key themes for long-terminstitutional investing Surya Kolluri, TIAA InstituteCatherine Reilly, TIAA Institute Contents About the project3Key takeaways3Introduction4Longevity, debt, and tech: What does the future hold?4The new risk premium: Resilience over efficiency6The inflation imperative: Protection and growth in a new rate regime8From bullion to bitcoin, or maybe not?10FOMO versus ROI: The AI investment conundrum10 About the project The goal of this project is to identify the longer-termthemes that are important for institutional investors as theybuild their portfoliosWe particularly want to get beyondshort-term tactical considerations to understand what’sstrategically important from a 5–10-year perspectiveOurapproach combined background research and interviewswith both academic and other subject matter experts anda diverse range of institutional investorsThe interviews Key takeaways Institutional investors now face a convergence of structuralforces that will create a more volatile and complex investmentenvironment than in past decades1 Country risk has returned to developed markets as the post-warsystem of stable alliances erodes2 Private markets have evolved from yield enhancement tools toessential portfolio construction instruments Everyone agrees AI will be transformative, but no one knows whowill capture the economic value Sustainability integration has become pragmatic rather thanideological Institutional investors face increasing pressure to justify theirvalue and portfolio holdings to stakeholders The search for inflation protection with attractive returns hasaccelerated as a priority Human judgment remains essential despite AI advances PATIENT CAPITAL IN IMPATIENT TIMESINTRODUCTION Longevity, debt, and tech: What does the future hold? The investment landscape is at a critical junctureAfter an extended period characterizedby robust returns and accommodative monetary policy, institutional investors now face amore challenging environmentSeveral powerful, slow-moving forces are converging to reshape the The post-World War II system of global alliances and opentrade is fragmenting, leading to regional blocs, bilateralagreements, and increased hostilityThe shift fromoptimizing efficiency through globalization toward a moreresilience-focused regional approach is increasing costs, benefitsThe challenge for investors is that they know theycannot afford to wait on the sidelines, yet the investors weinterviewed expressed a high degree of uncertainty around Sustainability considerations have moved from ethicalconcern to pragmatic long-term risk and return factorsInstitutional investors are incorporating environmental,social, and governance factors into portfolio construction Increasing longevity represents an inexorable trendPopulation aging will accelerate at a time when governmentsare already grappling with debt overhangs that constrainpolicy flexibility and raise questions about long-term fiscalsustainabilityThis demographic transition, combined For institutional investors managing capital across decades,the central challenge is distinguishing signal from noise amidthis complexityWhich trends represent fundamental shiftsdemanding portfolio repositioning? Which are transitoryfluctuations? And how should long-term fiduciaries adapt Rapid developments in technology, particularly artificialintelligence (AI), offer vast opportunity but also introducenew uncertaintyThe acceleration of innovation could boostproductivity, extend working lives, and create new investmentopportunitiesThe required massive investment in physicalcapital for the energy transition and AI infrastructure has the THIS REPORT EXAMINES SIXCRITICAL AREAS: •Transition from efficiency to resilience•Inflation protection strategies•AI investment challenge•AI’s role in portfolio management itself•Evolving sustainability integration Significant questions remain about who will capture theeconomic value created, what returns companies willachieve from AI adoption, and how labor markets will adjustHistorical precedents, from electricity adoption to the The new risk premium: Resilience over efficiency Globally, the system of alliances that has been in place since World War II has been erodingfor some time, making way for regional blocs and bilateral agreementsWhile Covid and theRussian invasion of Ukraine may have been the turning point, recent USpolicies imposingbilateral tariffs and retreating from global agreements have accelerated and exacerbatedthis trendIn addition to making the world more complex and harder to predict, this has also At the same time, the long-term globalization trend isreversing course, and the focus is shifting from optimizingcost efficiency to resiliency and national securityThis islikely to increase costs, leading to higher inflationIt mayalso imply that inflation will become more volatileSeveral In addition to monitoring debtors’ ability to pay theirobligations, there’s also a new wariness rega