您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美银美林]:大中华区汽车行业概述:4月乘用车保险注册量同比-19%/环比-7%;渠道库存下降;电动车同比-6% - 发现报告

大中华区汽车行业概述:4月乘用车保险注册量同比-19%/环比-7%;渠道库存下降;电动车同比-6%

交运设备 2026-05-19 美银美林 何杰斌
报告封面

channel inventory declined; EV -6% YoYIndustryOverview April PV insurance reg. -19% YoY; inventory destocking Greater ChinaAutos YoY/down 7% MoM. In 4M26, PV insurance registrations were down 18% YoY. Based onthe variation between wholesales (2.13mn, -4% YoY, as reported by CAAM) and Ming Hsun Lee, CFA >Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) insurance registrations, and considering the export volume (796k units),we estimatechannel inventory decreased 23k units in April.Geographically,some provinces/cities,such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Shanghai outperformed, while Shandong, Henan,Sichuan, Hebei, and Anhui underperformed in April.EV insurance reg. -6% YoY/+3% MoM to 827k unitsLocallymanufactured EVs'insurance registrations totaled 827k units in April, down 6% minghsun.lee@bofa.comJoeyYang,CFA>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) +85235084021joey.z.yang@bofa.comFiona Liang>>ResearchAnalvstMerrll Lynch (Hong Kong) YoY/up3%MoM.In4M26,domestic EVs'insurance registrationswere down18%YoY. Among OEMs, Geely,Changan,LiAuto,NIO,Xiaomi, Leapmotor,AITO,and BAIC BJEVoutgrew the EV market in April.BYD's insurance registrations were down 30%YoY to184k units.Tesla's domesticsales weredown11%YoYto26k units:Model3salescamein at 3k units and Model Y at 23k units (including 4k Model Y L). April registrationnumbers for EV startups:Li Auto34k units (-4%YoY),XPeng 25k units (-17% YoY),A/T023k units (+10% YoY), GAC Aion22k units (-12% YoY),Leapmotor 50k units (+53% YoY),NIO 34k units (+34% YoY), and Zeekr (excluding Lynk) 23k units (+86% YoY).MostJVbrandsandluxurybrandsdeclinedinApril +852 3508 4390fiona.liang3@bofa.comJessie Lo >Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Singapore) +6566781134jessie.lo@bofa.com Among JV brands, Japanese JV brands like GAC Honda (-49% YoY), GAC Toyota (-18%YoY), DF Honda (-47% YoY), DF Nissan (-13% YoY), and FAW Toyota (-21% YoY) saw a drop in April. In addition, other JV brands, including Changan Ford (-54% YoY), FAW VW (-33% YoY),SGM Wuling (-32% YoY), SAIC GM (-32% YoY),and SAIC VW (-46% YoY)alsoposted sales decline in April. Among luxury brands, Lexus was -34% YoY, FAW Audi -38%YoY, Brilliance BMW -20% YoY, Beijing Benz -32% YoY, and Porsche -45% YoY.Own brands: SAiC PV outperformed among peers CAAM: China Association ofAutomobile ManufacturersEV: Electric vehicleOEM:Original equipmentmanufacturerJV: Joint ventureBEV: Battery electric vehiclePHEV: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle Vehicle insurance registrations for Geely (including Lynk/Zeekr)/GWM/Changan were down 6% YoY/down 16%YoY/down 11% YoY in April. GAC Trumpchi was down 34%YoY; GAC Aion was down 12%YoY.DFFengshen saw 38%YoY decline, while SAIC PVsaw 33% YoY growth due to delivery of Shangjie H5 and Z7/Z7T. Inventory at channels decreased 23k units in April, after adjusting for export volumes April PV insurance registrations came in at 1.36mn units, down 19% YoY/7% MoM Exhibit 6: Monthly insurance registrations growth, by provincejiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, and Shanghai outperformed, while Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Hebei, and Anhui underperformed in April DisclosuresImportant Disclosures of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of both a stock's absolute total returnpotential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocksare expected to have a total return of at least 1o% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat orincrease in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment rating12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm's guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a stockshould be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst's view of the potential priceappreciation (depreciation).Investment ratingTotal return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initialRatings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry, sector,region or other classification(s). A stock's coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock. Corporation,including profits derived from investment banking, The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among otherfactors, the overallprofitability of the Bank's sales and trading businesses relating to th