基于令牌的计划以从AI热潮中获利

DiversifiedTelecommunications Token-based plans to monetize the Al boom +ChinaTelecom announcedanationwidetokenpackageoffering on17May,spurring investorenthusiasm+All three telcos introduced token-based subscription plans,but we expect little earnings impact in the near term+Retain Buy ratings for China Mobile (H/A),Hold for ChinaTelecom (H/A),and Reduce forChina Unicom (H/A) Head of Asia TelecomsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchpiyush.choudhary@hsbc.com.sg+656658 0607Charlie Bai* Analyst,Asia TelecomsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcharlie.bai@hsbc.com.hk+852 22887184Ritchie Sun*, CFA Token-based plans gain traction: China telcos arepackaging Al token usage intosubscription plans, turning tokens into the industry's newest data unit and billingmetric (i.e. token as the new GB). For example, China Mobile (CM)'s Jiangsu branchofferedmonthlytokenplans (unitprice:Rmb2/milliontoken)on17AprilaccessingvariousLLMssuchasDeepSeek.On29April,ChinaUnicom(CU)'sHubeibranchintroduced token plans (unit price: Rmb1.3/million token) and coding plans (pricing byrequests)accessingMiniMax model.On 17May,ChinaTelecom(CT)launched atiered token plan covering both individuals (cRmb10/30/50 permonth for10m/40m/80mtoken)andSMEs(cRmb40/160/300permonthfor15m/70m/150mtoken).TheseplansunderpinChinatelcos'strategies tobecome utility-likeAlinfrastructureprovidersand monitizetheskyrocketingAl-driventokenconsumptioninChina (from100billion/day in early 2024 to over 140trn/day in March2026) Analyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedritchie.k.h.sun@hsbc.com.hk+85228224392 not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations But price competitiveness remainsquestionable:We think CT's H/A sharepricerose c6%/8%on 18Maybecauseof the Altoken plan launchand“Token Factory"procurement announcement. CT's Ningxia branch recently opened China's first telco-led"TokenFactory"procurement.However,wethinkthepricecompetitivenessoftelcos'token plans are questionable. The price per token does not seem lower thanInternet CSPs' C-end monthly subscriptions (see table 2). Moreover, we think modelvariety,computingpowerreliability,ecosystemofcloudofferings,andresponsivenessofsupportteammatterforindividualandSMEusers.China'sInternetCSPs suchasBytedanceareearlymovers intoken-based subscriptionofferings with more powerful proprietary LLMs than telcos. Therefore, we do notexpecttelcos to gain significant market share in the neartomediumterm Retain Buys for CM (H/A), Holds for CT (H/A), and Reduces for CU (H/A): Webelievetelcos'trials inthetoken-based model would enrichtheircloud productofferings. But we see limited visibility on an earnings impact, and hence wekeep ourestimates and ratings unchanged.CM continues tobe our preferred pick given ahigher FY26e dividend yield (6.3%) and a more robust balance sheet. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com 5.China Telecom:SoTPvaluationassumptionsValuation method 6.ChinaTelecomSoTPvaluation Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews orforecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Piyush Choudhary,CFA, Charlie Bai and Ritchie Sun, CFA ImportantdisclosuresEquities:Stock ratingsand basisforfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestorsutilisevarious disciplines and investmenthorizonswhenmaking investmentdecisions.Ratings should notbeused orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingbecause research reports contain more complete inform