数字轨道，真实经济：数字资产与批发银行业的未来

Digital Assets are unlikely to disrupt Wholesale Banking,but digital rails could reshape theeconomics of severalmajorbusiness linesby2030.Banks candefendand even growshareby investing nowintrustedclientgateways,tokenized rails, and ecosystemstosupportthefuturemodel.(ExcerptedfromourBluePaperpublishedMay14,2026) Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting.For more information, visit www.oliverwyman.comOliver Wyman is not authorized or regulated by the PRA or the FCA and is not providing investment advice. Oliver Wyman authors are not research analysts and are neither FCA nor FINRA registered. Oliver Wyman authors have only contribut their expertise on business strategy within the report. Oliver Wyman's views are clearly delineated. The securities and valuation sections of this report are the work of Morgan Stanley only and not Oliver Wyman. For disclosures specificallypertaining to Oliver Wyman, please see the Disclosure Section located at the end of this report. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley ResearcForanalvstcertificationandotherimportantdiscloseendofthisreport Authors EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 8473Betsy.Graseck@morganstanley.com EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 6341Jorge.Kuri@morganstanley.com PRINCIPAL+1 917 963 4276Tony.Zheng@oliverwyman.com PARTNER+1 617 650 1457Dylan.Walsh@oliverwyman.com EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425 5344Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.com EQUITY ANALYST+852 2848 6729Richard.Xu@morganstanley.com ENGAGEMENT MANAGER+1 201 744 4652Jordan.Cole@oliverwyman.com PARTNER+1 206 669 9772Peter.Dykstra@oliverwyman.com EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 7619Michael.Cyprys@morganstanley.com EQUITY ANALYST+27 11 587 0814James.Starke@morganstanley.com Esther ChongASSOCIATE+65 90 12 61 42Esther.Chong@oliverwyman.com Jason EkbergPARTNER+31 6 11 56 36 25Jason.Ekberg@oliverwyman.com Ben BayanfartRESEARCHASSOCIATE Alvaro SerranosEQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425 6942Alivaro.Serrano@morganstanley.com Hirak ShahCONSULTANT+1 646 492 6573Hirak.Shah@oliverwyman.com Joseph CoxPARTNER+1 919 218 8207Joseph.Cox@oliverwyman.com +1 212 761 0646Ben.Bayanfar@morganstanley.com Franco Insausti, CFA2EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7677 3769Franco.Insausti@morganstanley.com James Faucette1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 296 5771James.Faucette@morganstanley.com Nick Lord3EQUITY ANALYST+65 6834 6746Nick.Lord@morganstanley.com 1 Morgan Stanley & Co LLC2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC+3 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+4 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+5 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+6 RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+7Morgan Stanley&CoInternational plc, Seoul Branch+8 Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+9 Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+10 Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ DigitalAssetImpactonGlobalWholesaleBanks:WhyNow? Market support for FinTechs is increasing their competitiveness Legislation and Regulation on Digital Assets is rapidly evolving around the globe Exchanges extending hours Second Half of 2026 Catalysts:Clarity Act poised for passage0DTCC expanding tokenized assets — Fall 2026NYSE, Nasdaq extending hours Dec 2026 Digital Asset Impact on Global Wholesale Bank Revenues in 2030 Positive: Incremental revenues from servicing crypto asset class which could add20bp - 1% pt to 2030 revenues. Risk: Revenues migrate from TradFi rails to digital asset rails which can shift share asmoney goes into motion; we estimate 3-11% pt of 2030 revenues could be at risk ofshare shift. GlobalWholesaleBankOutlook Acrossthreediversemacroscenarios,weestimatetheindustrywillgenerate$650850BNin2030revenuesveryhealthyconsideringwheretheindustryhascomefrom. IBD contributes most to revenue growth in both Resilient Growth and Economic Transformationwhile Macro gains more than offsets shrinkage in other revenue pools in Global Disruption. Our forecasts have industry ROE of ~17% in our Resilient Growth scenario, ~20% in EconomicTransformation,and~12%inGlobalDisruptionscenarioin2030 Revenue growth through 2028 in Resilient Growth (Base Case) is positive across ourGlobal Bank coverage, most at US Money Centers, given higher US GDP growth rates. HSBC, JPM, C, and GS have the most efficient expense ratios in each of our scenarios in2028. JPM delivers the highest 2028 ROTCE in all our scenarios; GS is also positioned favorablybut trails HSBC in Global Disruption We estimate that adding wholesale banking services for the crypto asset class could add$1.5BNto$8BNinRevenuesin2030 We estimate the shift totokenized rails will be the fastest in Liguidity&Balances and Cross-BorderPaymentsdrivenbyclientdemand Wholesale Banking migration to digital rails in the base adoption scenario with percent of total 2030WholesaleBankingrevenuesatriskforeachadoptionriskcategory Global regulation progressing toward support