2026年3月金属和钢铁行业趋势

A fractured outlook ofdeclining demand and Global overview China, where exports surged. This is not expected to last. The weakrecovery in demand from the Chinese steel sector is not sufficient,nor is demand from elsewhere. A subsequent iron ore price decline of10% and 5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, is compounded by rising Ongoing issues hamper steel performance, contrasting with After a 5.3% increase last year, global basic metals productiongrowth is expected to slow down, to 3.3% in 2026 and 2.4%in 2027. In many markets demand from key manufacturingindustries has started to decrease, as front-loading activity andtariff implementation delays have subsided. That said, global Non-ferrous metals production is expected to increase by 3.5% in2026 and by 2.9% in 2027, which is above average for the whole basicmetals industry. AI-related capital spending and a more growth-friendly US policy mix is underpinning high-tech and capital-goods Metals and steel output is regionally divergent this year, with a3.6% growth rate expected in the Asia Pacific region comparedto 1.1% in the European Union. There are also differences amongmetals and steel subsectors. Global iron and steel output isforecast to increase by 3.1% in 2026 and by 2.1% in 2027. Excesscapacity is weighing on the segment, and consolidation hasbeen slow. China’s prolonged construction slump has weighed Steel overcapacity will remain an issue in the coming years Over the past 20 years, China has been the biggest contributor to steelovercapacity. There is now growing pushback, with several countriesraising tariffs, or imposing restrictions on Chinese steel. Much dependson the extent to which China’s administration is willing and successfulin pivoting the economy away from investment-led growth throughcapacity closures. However, we expect that global overcapacities in Industry trendsMetals and Steel Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Green metals and steel.Demand for green metals and steel isgrowing, particularly from EV manufacturers as they increasinglyinclude Scope 3 emissions within decarbonisation strategies. Tariffs and sanctions.Global metal markets are becomingincreasingly fractured, and inefficiencies will emerge while Clean energy transition.Transitioning to greener productioncarries high capital intensity and costs, which can be compoundedby difficulties in sourcing finance for SMEs. Many could find it Increased competitiveness.Increased demand for green metalsand steel by automotive and also areas such as wind turbineproduction, means ‘green’ producers can gain a competitive Overcapacity.Historically, the steel industry has been seen asvital to national interests, and domestic production has beenencouraged and protected. But increased globalisation has led to Emerging markets.Growing urbanisation is driving demand fornew housing and infrastructure improvement projects. This is Supply chain issues.Securing and developing sustainable supplychains can be a challenge, especially for mining, transportationand materials processing. This could lead to sourcing and AmericasMetals and Steel outlook USA Most US metals and steel companies donot have problems renewing or extendingtheir credit lines amid an environmentof good payment behaviour and lowinsolvency levels. However, credit riskis higher for some small and mid-sizedcompanies, especially those with a Domestic steel producers benefit from We forecast basic metals productionto increase by 2.9% in both 2026 and2027. Lower interest rates and positiveinvestment incentives due to the OneBig Beautiful Bill (OBBA) should pavethe way for growth in US manufacturingand related metals and steel demand. Canada We expect US iron and steel output togrow by 3% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027.Demand is bolstered by data centre-drivenflat steel use, federal infrastructurespending and reshoring, with tariffs anddisciplined capacity supporting margins.Most domestic iron and steel producersare gaining market share and additional Credit risk has increased due to US tariffs We expect basic metals output to contractby 4.2% again in 2026 after two years ofdecreases. The US-imposed 50% tariffis cutting off Canadian steel companies’main export market and has started toaffect sales and profits. Steel producers Both federal and provincial governmentshave begun providing loans to support theindustry and are requiring companies withgovernment contracts to buy Canadiansteel to help stabilise the sector. Despitethis short-term protection, steel producers Non-ferrous metals production is expectedto rise by 3.1% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.Aluminium is the largest subsector byvolume, and tariffs have pushed pricesto record highs. However, with only fouraluminium producers still operating and allfacing elevated input costs we expect onlya modest supply response. Copper refininghas expanded, helped by strong AI and Energy prices are much lower in the USthan in other regions, due to the siz