2025/2026年全球金属和钢铁行业趋势

Contents Global: Multiple headwinds are impacting the global metals and steel industryMetals and steel industry performance and outlook: AmericasMetals and steel industry performance and outlook: Asia PacificMetals and steel industry performance and outlook: Europe Our Trade Sector Specialists Nicola HarrisSenior Underwriter Antonio Javier(AJ) Cobos Jenn DoanSenior Underwriter Kim Wei KoeSenior Underwriter Atradius Asia (Singapore) Atradius UK (Cardiff) Atradius Australia (Sydney) Senior UnderwriterAtradius USA (Baltimore) Nicola is a Senior Underwriterbased in our Cardiff office inthe UK. She has worked withAtradius for the past nineyears following a successfulinternship with our Special Risk Jenn is a Senior Underwriterfor Australia and New Zealandbased in our Sydney office inAustralia. She joined Atradiusas an intern in 2019 and hasprogressed to her currentposition after working previouslyas an Underwriter and Associate Kim Wei is a Senior Underwriterat Atradius. Based in Singaporehe has worked with Atradiusfor five years, and currentlymanages a portfolio ofEnergy, Metals, Fuels, Mining,Construction Materials, Rubberand Services in Singapore, AJ is a Senior Underwriter for theAmericas based in our Baltimoreoffice in the USA. He joinedAtradius in 2012 and workedin our Madrid office until 2023when he transferred to the USAto take on the position of Senior Global: Multiple headwindsare impacting the global The global metals and steel industry is facing an unsettled time, with headwinds fromseveral different directions. These include the latest wave of tariffs imposed by PresidentTrump on imports to the US, the clean energy transition which can involve costly capitalinvestment to replace coke and coal-fired furnaces with electric arc furnaces, and for the sector. This is high in several regions andcountries, exacerbated by the tariffs and uncertaintyabout the global economy. However, while they notethe major headwinds causing industry instability,they also point to areas of growth and potential.These include the opportunities afforded to metalsand steel businesses across Europe that have Steel production will plateau in China over the restof this decade before structurally declining overthe long run. India and emerging market economieswill be key engines of supply growth over the In this report, our sector specialists located in theworld’s major markets dig deeper into how themetals and steel industry is faring in their local Metals andsteel industry USA: Despite slowergrowth, local producers However, the picture for domestic metals producersin the USA is more complicated than simply gainingrevenue from higher prices. Most recent projectionsof US economic growth point to just 1.3% in 2025and 1.7% in 2026. US basic metals production, is “We can’t look at the metals and steelindustry in the USA without also looking atthe tariffs”, said AJ Cobos, Atradius SeniorUnderwriter. “But this is tricky”, he added.“There is significant uncertainty for how The import tariffs were imposed to redress animbalance in trade and, in aluminium and steel inparticular, to address an oversupply being importedinto the USA. As AJ Cobos noted: “Most domesticferrous and non-ferrous metals producers shouldbenefit from the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminiumimports. Domestic steel players will gain market Has business confidence increasedalongside margins? credit lines amid an environment of good paymentbehaviour and low insolvency levels. However,credit risk is higher for some small and mid-sizedcompanies, especially those with a leveraged balance AJ Cobos added: “Business confidence andinvestment in the US metals and steel industryhas been dented by the uncertainty associatedwith the tariff policy. This largely affects planning. “US domestic steel playerswill gain market shareand additional revenue Given the current price environment, the marginsof US metals and steel businesses will likely increaseover the coming year, or at least level off. Banksare still willing to lend, and most of the companies Canada: Iron and steelhit hard by tariffs,though US demand for Canada is the single largest foreign supplierof steel to the US market and the tariffs willbite. In 2024 Canada shipped 87% of its totalsteel exports to the US. It will be challengingto redirect that steel elsewhere amid an lower US economic growth. In this more challengingtrade environment, credit risk among smallerplayers has increased, especially for those with However, the outlook for aluminium is slightlydifferent. AJ Cobos explained: “The picture withaluminium exports to the US is complicated.Canada is a key supplier to the US, accountingfor around two thirds of its demand. Despite He added: “That said, we expect Canada’snon-ferrous metals production to fall by 3.6%in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. The tariffs andassociated higher export costs will be a factor, Metals andsteel industry Australia: Governmentprojects likely tounderpin steel In add