2025/2026年全球建筑业趋势
Contents Global: More modest growth predicted for construction in 2025Construction industry performance and outlook: AmericasConstruction industry performance and outlook: Asia PacificConstruction industry performance and outlook: Europe Leon BarendsmaManager Risk Matt NathanUnderwriter Mon RazakSenior Underwriter Shane TanAssociate Senior Atradius Australia(Melbourne) Services, AtradiusNetherlands (Amsterdam) Atradius USA (Baltimore) Underwriter at AtradiusAsia (Singapore) Matt is an Underwriter basedin Baltimore. After a completinga successful internship in 2017,Matt returned to Atradius totake on a full-time position inthe Spring of 2021. His primaryarea of expertise and current Mon is a Senior Underwriterat Atradius. Based in Melbourneshe has worked with Atradiusfor 16 years, and currentlymanages the Constructionportfolio for Australia andNew Zealand. Her expertise Leon is a Risk Services Managerbased in Amsterdam. He hasa high level of knowledgeabout the construction sectorand is currently responsiblefor the Atradius Manufacturing Shane is an Associate SeniorUnderwriter at Atradius Asia,a position he has held since2021. Based in Singapore,he is currently responsiblefor the Food, ICT, Rubber and Global: More modestgrowth predicted for Despite the ongoing challenges in China’sreal estate sector and high interest ratescontinuing to impact mortgage rates inEurope and the US, the outlook for the However, falling inflation and recent interest ratecuts will begin to alleviate some of the pressure.The lagged impact of interest rate cuts means Civil engineering and non-residential buildingsaw robust growth in both 2023 and 2024 (seechart below). Both segments benefited from thewillingness of governments worldwide to champion Of course, we can’t ignore the fact that China’songoing real estate turmoil and downgradedinvestment profiles are weighing on globalresidential construction prospects. In Europe and the Constructionindustryperformance Canada: Residentialconstruction about Matt Nathan, Underwriter Atradius USA(Baltimore) said: “Interest rate cutsand tamed inflation are a positive signfor Canada’s construction industry.This comes on the back of a challengingtime for the industry.” Construction Mexico: Good long-term Mexico’s construction growth will slow down in2025 and 2026, following robust growth rates in2023 and last year. Public investment, the drivingforce behind the strong expansion, will weaken Civil engineering is forecast to contract by 2.3%in 2024 and by 0.3% in 2025, caused in partby low government incentives. Prices forconstruction materials are still elevated. Lack ofskilled construction labour is a lingering problem. Matt added: “Despite the current slowdown, longerterm projections are pointing to average annualreal growth of 2.6% year-on-year between 2026and 2033. Investments in nearshoring should United States Non-residential construction and civilengineering drive US sector growth construction insolvencies in2024, but after that no realdeterioration is expected.” We expect US construction output to increase 3.6%in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. Strong public investment,continued easing in financial market conditions,and the strength of the labour market will helpthe economy grow at a similar rate to last year.Matt Nathan explained: “The growth momentum However, Matt cautioned: “Thesame cannot be said for the solar-related construction segment.I fully expect rising paymentdelays and insolvencies. It’s stilladjusting to major changes in He added: “Residential construction has beennegatively affected by the significant increasein interest rates in 2023 and into 2024 as theFed combatted inflation. Higher borrowing costsand mortgage rates have discouraged potentialhomebuyers. That said, as the interest rates will November. It is likely that witha fully Republican controlledgovernment incentives, subsidies and projects Will cash flow pressures heightencredit risk? Matt said: “US construction businesses arehighly dependent on bank credit, and gearingin the industry is high. Ultimately banks remainopen to lending and very few of the companies Some construction businesses are holdinghigh levels of inventory and accounts receivable,placing pressure on cash flows. Despite profitableoperations, this could lead to liquidity constraints if He noted: “The sector has historically operated withlong payment times compared to other industries,and this is unlikely to change. This is because thecash flow crunch continues to intensify for certainbusinesses with heavy working capital needs andmany are still paying high interest rates on their Constructionindustryperformance Asia Pacific is a construction industrypowerhouse, accounting for 45% ofthe world’s construction output.Much of this comes from emerging Asia, This demand is likely to last for a while. For, despitesignificant urbanisation over the last two decades,less than 70% of China’s population lives in cities,indicating the
