伯恩斯坦能源与电力：核电共识

GuillaumeDelaby+33142136229guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.comDeepa Venkateswaran,ACA+442076766990deepa.venkateswaran@bernsteinsg.comBob Brackett, Ph.D.+19173448422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.comNeil Beveridge, Ph.D.+85221232648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com NUCLEAR..NOWACCELERATED BYTHEWARAt presentwhiletheUSaccounts forthelargestinstalledbase In1973 in France,Oil fired power plants accounted for43% of for nuclear generationcapacity,China hasthelargestunder-constructionbasefollowedby India.Incrementallythough weareseeing manynewcountries accelerateplansfora nuclearpowerplant.EXHIBIT2:Chinaaccountsfor~50%of totalunder EDF's (private)totalpower output,andhydroaccountedfor32%Inresponsetothe1973Oil crisis,TheFrenchprimeminister,PierreMessmerwentall outon Nuclear.Hestated inaspeech inMarch,1974:There isalmost nopetrolonour territory,we haveless coalthan England and Germany and much less gas than Holland ... ourgreatchanceis electrical energyofnuclear origin becausewe havehad good experience with it since the end of World War ll..'Thecountrymade amassive shifttowards nuclear.EDFordered 16newPWRs in 1974 alone,doubling its reactor orderbook,and Francewentontobuild roughly56-58reactors between themid-1970sand late 1980s, as is visible in the chart below. shock,with oil fired power plants accounting for 66% of electricitygeneration in1974.While Japan'sfirst commercialnuclear plantstarted in1966,postthe oil crisis it becamea national strategicpriority for the country - visible in the chart below. While Fukushimadealtablowto nuclear in Japan,theplants arebeing revivedagain. 35 new countries are inthe works or are planning to addnuclearpower generation capacity.Akey challengefor smaller countriesin adding anuclear plant is the size of atypical nuclear plant -asonesingleplantshouldnotbecomea bigpartof thegrid(canleadto grid failure in case of outage). The other is nuclear technology -whereRussiahastakentheleadand hassomeformanagreement/ Source: EIA, Bernstein analysis partnership on construction of2Russian VVER-1200reactors inVietnam EXHIBIT 3:Most countries in theemerging markets are planning to add nuclear capacitysh. Egyot Turkey Vietnam, Russia sign agreementon new nuclear plantMonday. 23 March 2026 construction of the Ninh Thuan 1 Nuclear Power Plant in Vietnam, tofeature two VVER-1200 reactors, with the new Leningrad units as thereference project. nuclearcapacityaddition in 29 countries In March'26,South Korea,a major LNG importer,announcedplans tospeedupthemaintenance of somenuclearreactorsthatwere shut due to some safety concerns in orderto ensure energysecurity. IndonesiaandRussiaAdvanceNuclear Energy Partnership Talkswith Localization Focus EXHIBIT7:Mar'26:SouthKorea announced plans tospeed upthe restart of nuclear reactors South Korea to Speed Up NuclearRestartAmidMiddleEastCrisis ByShoko Odaand SeyoonKimMarch 11, 2026 at 11:39 AM GMT+5:30 +: Takeaways by Bloomberg AI South Korea will speed up the restart of nuclear reactorsundergoing maintenanceto secureenergy amid theongoing war inthe Middle East. Rosatom'sheadmetPresidentPrabowoSubiantotodiscussacomprehensivenuclearpartnership,includingtechnologytransferworkforcetraining.andgridintegrationfor the archipelago. Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT9:Executiontime:Mostcountriesgloballytake10 NUCLEAREXPANSION...In the early1990s,China imported nuclear reactors fromFrance, Canada and Russia alongwith agreements fortechnologytransfer.Based on the PWRreactor designs it imported and deployed,China turnedto make its own indigenous reactors -eg.CPR-1000and ACPR-1000 indigenous reactors were designed using M310reactor importedfromFrance.Thecountryhas~6oGWofnuclearcapacitywith atargetto reach 110GW by 2030as perthe latest15th Five-Year Plan. Indigenous reactors have accounted formajority of their additions post 2010, refer image below. power-given lowcapex and construction time Chinahas one of thelowest nuclear plant construction timeline(5years vs.global avg of 10 years)and costs. With supportfrom localand provincial governments to the public sector-i)capital raisingfor projects are relativelyeasyandata low cost,ii)theprojectsaremostly locatednext to eachother in orderto benefitfromconstruction economies ofscale ii)Theprojects arealsolocated incoastalareasclosetodemandcentersandalsoutilizesea-waterascoolants insteadoflargecoolingtowers,while avoiding earthquakeand flood risks associated with in land projects, iv) Indigenization, v)Permittingandland acquisition is critical forthis business-China'sgovernmentstructure makes it much easierto do. Links to our previous reports on nuclear power: Feb 2026 - Bernstein Energy & Power: Nuclear -The push is real...as the world bends over backwards for nuclear.. Oct 2025-Bernstein Energy &Power:Nuclear-Game changingSMRtechorhype? We have covered China's success in more detail in the followingnote -Bernstein Energy &Power: Nuclear-The Chinese Jul 2024-Bernstein Energy &Power:Nuclear-the phoenix