伯恩斯坦能源与电力：热泵——欧洲电力需求增长中被低估的杠杆？

Deepa Venkateswaran, ACA+44 20 7676 6990deepa.venkateswaran@bernsteinsg.comGuillaume Delaby+33 1 42 13 62 29guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.comBob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.comNeil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.comNikhil Nigania+91 226 842 1414nikhil.nigania@bernsteinsg.com EXHIBIT 1:Heat pump adoption is a key pillar of the UK’sdecarbonisation plans BERNSTEIN ENERGY & POWER: HEAT PUMPS - ANUNDERAPPRECIATED LEVER OF POWER DEMANDGROWTH IN EUROPE? Written by Deepa Venkateswaran and Rory Graham-Watson The 2022 European energy crisis and the 2026 Iranian war havespurred significant adoption of decarbonisation technologies inEurope, including increased uptake of EVs and household solar/battery installations. In this Blast we analyse the prospects for anacceleration of the domestic heat pump roll-out in the wake of thelatest crisis, as well as the potential beneficiaries in this scenario. INTRODUCTION WHAT IS A HEAT PUMP? As set out in Exhibit 1, the heat pump is a core technology inthe decarbonization plans of European national governments,including the UK. The UK Government is targeting over 450,000new installations per year by 2030, with the National EnergySystem Operator contemplating 10-25% of households beingfitted with a device by 2035, vs ~1% currently. Additionally, underthe Labour government’s Future Homes Standard, all new-buildhouses in the UK from 2028 onward must be fitted with a heatpump. In the EU, the 2022 REPowerEU Plan contemplates theinstallation of 30m heat pumps by 2030, whilst the 2026 EnergyPlan/AccelerateEU contemplates 4m heat pump sales per yearby 2030. In this edition of theBlastwe set out an overview ofheat pump technology including its history, mechanisms and keyvariants, as well as examining its potential implications for thebroader electricity system. A heat pump is an electrically-powered heating device that uses acombination of ambient heat and compression technology to heat abuilding or other structure. The most commonly deployed version ofthe technology, the air source heat pump (ASHP), absorbs ambientheat from the air. Other versions, e.g. ground source heat pumps(GSHP) source heat from underground pipe networks. Heat pumpscan enjoy significant energy efficiency benefits as the device isable to transfer more heat energy into the heated building than theelectrical energy it uses in its operation. HOW DO HEAT PUMPS WORK? Heat pumps work on the basis of the 4-step refrigeration cycle, i.e.1) Evaporation, 2) Compression, 3) Condensation and 4) Expansion. the 1970s oil crisis accelerated the momentum of the technology. Evaporation In air source heat pumps, fans are used to blow ambient outdoor airover a heat exchanger containing a chemical refrigerant in a liquidform. This liquid chemical refrigerant has a sufficiently low boilingpoint that even the ambient outdoor heat is sufficient to induce itsevaporation into a low-pressure, low-temperature gas. TYPES OF HEAT PUMP The two primary types of heat pump are 1) air source and 2) groundsource. The former draws ambient heat from the surrounding air,whilst the latter is buried underground and draws ambient heatfrom the surrounding earth. Air source heat pumps are significantlymore prevalent because 1) they require less space and 2) aresignificantly less costly to install, although they are also somewhatless efficient to operate because of variations in air temperature,which varies more than ground temperature. Compression The newly-evaporated gas is directed into an electrically-powered compressor. The compression process further raises thetemperature of the gas by raising its pressure. Condensation EXHIBIT 5:A ground sourceheat pump Following the compression process, the gas is transferred to asecond heat exchanger which transfers its stored heat energy into awater circuit, thereby warming the water which subsequently eitherpowers the heating system emitters (e.g. radiators or underfloorheating installations) or is used for the hot water supply. Expansion Having transferred its heat to the hot water system, the newly-cooled but still compressed gas is passed through an expansionvalve to lower its pressure. The decompression process furtherlowers the temperature of the gas such that it is again ready toabsorb ambient heat from the outdoor surroundings. Source: EDF We set out a comparison of the operating mechanisms of air sourceand ground source heat pumps in Exhibit 6 below. HISTORY OF HEAT PUMP TECHNOLOGY The first instance of heat pump technology in Europe can be tracedto Switzerland. Reportedly “as early as 1852, Lord Kelvin had anintuition regarding the heat pump, in remarking that a ‘reverse heatengine’ could be used not only for cooling but also for heating.’ Thefirst large scale heat pump was installed in the US in 1948 before Operating costs Excluding initial installation costs, the key considerations drivingthe technology decision between a gas bo