亚太石油与天然气：伯恩斯坦能源：让石油流动

Bernstein Energy: Let the oil flow The US-Iran MOU (see link) is a constructive first step toward reopening flowsthrough the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty remains high.Operational detailsare still unclear, including the timing of vessel returns, availability and pricing of war-riskinsurance, and safety protocols for transiting ships. Minesweeping progress and oversightalso remain key unknowns. As a result, while flows are set to resume, physical trade isunlikely to normalise quickly given lingering logistical and security constraints. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Although execution risk remains, both sides have clear incentives to de-escalate. Forthe US, easing geopolitical tensions and stabilising oil prices ahead of midterm electionsis politically important. On the Iranian side, the war is increasingly costly, and a deal offersa path to restore oil exports, access frozen assets, and stabilise the domestic economy.Critically, an agreement also supports regime security, allowing the leadership and IRGC toend the conflict while framing the outcome as a strategic win. Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com The oil market has already absorbed c.1bn bbls of supply shock through inventories.We estimate a cumulative drawdown of ~1bn bbl globally, spanning ~300mmbbls fromSPR, ~450mmbbls from China inventories, ~140mmbbls oil-on-water, and the balancefrom commercial stocks. This significant drawdown reinforces the importance of restockingonce supply flows stabilise. We expect normalisation to take around six months.This reflects the time needed forminesweeping activities, vessel repositioning, insurance repricing, and rebuilding of portand loading schedules. In addition, tanker availability and backlog clearing could slow thepace of recovery. As such, flows should increase gradually rather than a quick return tonormal. By 2027, we expect the market to shift into a ~2.8mmbbl/d (c.1bn bbls) surplus,although we anticipate much of this will be absorbed by inventory restocking.This ispremised on oil demand returning to normal of c.106MMbls/d next year and UAE growingto 5MMbls/d of supply by year end 2027. Following the recent drawdowns, buyers arelikely to rebuild stocks, which should absorb part of the excess supply. We expect broadlyinventories will return to pre-conflict levels by end-2027. Oil prices should remain supported near term in the $80–90/bbl range in 2026 and2027.Brent has averaged ~$87/bbl YTD, and we expect prices to stay close to $80-90/bbl this year amid tight inventories and gradual supply recovery. Looking ahead, we forecast~$78/bbl in 2027, with a stronger 1H and softer 2H profile. Longer term, we anchor at ~$75/bbl. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The MOU between the US and Iran is a positive step towards normalization of oil flows, but plenty of risks lie ahead and wesuspect there will be some twists and turns to come. Even if the agreement results in a permanent reopening of the Hormuz,it will take months for oil flows to get back to normal. As such we expect inventories will continue to draw in the short term.With oil prices touching US$80/bbl, markets are expecting a normalization of flows sooner rather than later. We expect themarket will remain under supplied through to the end of 3Q26 and only becoming balanced by 4Q26. While the market could beoversupplied next year, particularly if the UAE seeks to raise production to 5MMbls/d, inventories will need to be replenished.Since the start of this crisis, roughly 1bn barrels has been lost from inventories which would require an additional 3MMbls/d torestock. Moreover, some countries may choose to significantly increase inventories given the possibility of this event repeatingitself at some point in the future. We maintain our oil price forecast of US$90/bbl for this year (vs. US$87/bbl year to date) andUS$78/bbl oil price for next year with a long term price of US$75/bb based on marginal cost. With Asia oil and gas companiesyielding a double-digit FCF yield at US$80/bbl, any pull back in valuations as a result of a perceived ending of this crisis couldbe more of an opportunity to buy than to sell. DETAILS Near-term oil prices are primarily driven by supply and demand. The ~1bn bbl global stock draw has effectively tightenedthe market leaving inventories at extremely low levels. This creates a strong floor for prices, as any incremental recoveryin flows initially goes toward restocking rather than satisfying incremental demand, keeping near term balances tight. Weestimate a cumulative drawdown of ~1bn bbl globally, spanning ~300mmbbls from SPR, ~450mmbbls from China inventories,~140mmbbls oil-on-water, and the balance from commercial stocks. This significant drawdown reinforces the importance ofrestocking once supply flows stabilise. We expect normalisation to take around six months. This reflects the