亚太油气|伯恩斯坦能源观点：局势已持续一月，尚无缓和出路

Bernstein Energy: One month in and no way out Tanker tracking data highlights the Strait of Homruz (SoH) remains largely closedoff for oil and LNG. Prior to the conflict, there were roughly 120 transits per day, whichhas declined to 5 per day. Since the 1stof March only 160 vessels have transited the SoH,compared with over 3000 in March a year ago. In addition to reduced shipment of oil, drybulk carriers have also reduced significantly in number to 2-3 per day. LNG tankers crossingthe strait have declined to zero with the shut-ins of LNG facilities in the Gulf. We estimate that liquids supply through the SoH has been reduced by 15MMbls/d as a result of the disruption.Since the start of the conflict, 80 liquids tankers havecrossed the SoH, equating to 2 per day traveling eastward, compared to roughly 20 transitsper day prior to the conflict, a 90% reduction. We do not see a meaningful increase in oil supply from through the Red Sea tocompensate for the reduction through the SoH despite increased loading. Asshippers look for alternative routes, loadings at Yanbu on the Red Sea have increasedby 4MMbls/d to 6MMbls/d. The East West pipeline can notionally transport 7MMbls/d. Despite this, oil exports through the Bab El Mandeb have only increased by at most2MMbls/d. At the same time shipments through the Suez Canal have dropped by 2MMbls/d, implying no net increase from the Red Sea. Shipments through Fujairah, which is the UAEbypass option have remained stable, despite attacks on infrastructure. While it could take time for Red Sea loadings to translate to shipments, attacks onshipping by the Houthis could render bypass options challenging.Increased loadingat Yanbu of 4MMbls/d highlight efforts to make up for lost crude supply through the SoH.Attacks by the Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and rocket attacks on Israel (according tomedia) could well limit how effective this option is. Inventory draw down is not happening across many Asian and OCED countrieswhich will push oil prices higher as long as the conflict continues.The loss of15MMbls/d of supply should have resulted in a loss of 450MMbls. Oil on water has declinedby 200MMbls and will continue to decline as the conflict persists putting upward pressureon oil price. The remaining 250MMbls consists of shut in’s in their Middle East which areestimated to be close to 8-10MMbls/d (240-300MMbls). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS As the US-Iran war enters its fifth week, strains in the energy market are increasing. Emerging markets in Asia will be the first tosee the consequences of energy disruption with the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan already under significantpressure. Our analysis shows that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely at a standstill. While Gulf States arelooking for bypass options, our analysis of latest tanker data shows that Red Sea flows are not yet having any meaningful offset,despite higher loadings at the Red Sea Port of Yanbu. Attacks by the Houthis, adds a risk to any bypass options. While the UScontemplates the deployment of ground troops in the Gulf, our view is that it is next to impossible to defend shipping throughthe Strait of Hormuz and the broader Arabian Gulf. The key question for investors remains conflict duration. The longer theconflict goes on, the greater the chance we see a significant escalation in oil price to recession inducing levels. On the otherhand, any progress in peace talks could result in a violent snap back. Even if this happened however, there is no going back. Therisk premium for Middle East oil and LNG has increased which will in our view put upward pressure on long term price. Bernstein Energy: How high can oil price go? DETAILS EXHIBIT 1:No way back. Alternative bypass options TANKER TRACKING VIA STRAIT OF HORMUZ EXHIBIT 6:Oil tankers crossings via Strait of Hormuz as of March 30 EXHIBIT 11:21 LPG tankers have crossed the SoH in March VIA FUJAIRAH EXHIBIT 13:Daily oil exports via Fujairah VIA RED SEA EXHIBIT 19:Oil tankers crossing through Suez Canal as of March 30 EXHIBIT 20:Oil tankers crossing through Suez Canal as of March 02 APAC OIL & GAS SENSITIVITIES In terms of earnings, we expect Woodside, Santos, Inpex, and PTTEP have the highest sensitivity to oil prices. Although companyearnings may be revised upward due to the recent surge in energy prices, valuations are may not shift dramatically if the priceincrease is limited to the short term. What’s priced into oil equities and what are the range of valuations at each oil price is a question we routinely get asked. Thetable below shows a range of valuations at different oil prices based on our DCF models. Note that at US$80/bbl there is almostno upside across our coverage except for CNOOC, PetroChina and Santos which show the most upside by our estimates.