白银展望

Precious Metals After the gold rush + After hitting record highs, silver corrected in February; mayease further in 2H'26 as tightness recedes but will remainhighly volatile+ Industrial and jewelry demand falling; mine,scrap supply growing; coin &bar demandmay rise; gold may have lessprice influence+Weraiseouraveragepriceforecastsacrosstheboardto USD75/ozin2026andUSD68/ozin2027;softUSDsupportive but narrowing production/consumption deficits donot argue for rallies ChiefPrecious Metals AnalystHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.james.steel@us.hsbc.com Outlook: Silver hit a record high of USD121/oz on 29 January 2026, in league withrecord-high gold, supply tightness, and tariff, geopolitical and economic concerns, all ofwhich fostered safe-haven buying. The Middle East conflict triggered a flood into theUsD,andhighoil prices sparkedconcerns overtightermonetarypolicyasequitesslumped. This in turn sent silver tumbling along with gold to USD64/oz. The market hassince stabilized, but we believe further room to the upside is limited as silver remainsovervalued,inourview.Goldpriceswill likelyremaininfluential,butwebelievethethe Londonmarket has easedwith silver stocks shifting back fromNew York astariffconcerns dissipate, although there is still room for tariff surprises. We view prices asfundamentallyovervalued,but theyareclosertoequilibriumlevelsthan earlier intheyear. Industrial and jewelry demand will continue to weaken. Large bar demand shouldrisebasedoninstitutionalpurchases.Coin&smallbardemandmayalsorecoverbutata moderatepaceashighpricescurbdemand.ETFs liquidated this yearbut mayrebuild.India and China imports are curbedby highprices.The likelihood ofasoftUSD, as forecast by HSBC FX Research, can aid silver downswings. Debate overfuture Fed rate cuts, Fed independence, and geopolitical risks are price supportiveSupply rising: Global silver mine output continues to rise,aided by primary and byproduct output. Lower ore grades and mine closures will be largely offset bynewprojects and facilities expansion. The main increase will be in 2027, however.Miningcosts remain well below prices. Prices are still an incentive to raise output. Recyclinglevels look set to rise as bullion holders mobilize out of concern offurther pricedeclines. Hedge supply is also rising. modelanddatafromtheSilverInstitute's2026Survey,silverrana143mozdeficitin2025.Welookforthisdeficittonarrowto73mozin2026and25mozin2027Moderating deficits, in our view, will not be sufficient to propel silver sharply higher forprolonged periods and help explain our outlook for gradually lower prices in 2H'26 and2027. Shortages of .9999 high-quality silver may persist and aid prices.Above-groundstocks and recycling may eventually help cap the rally and weigh on prices longer term. Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Neil Young's 1970 album"After the Gold Rush" depicts hopeful but uncertain times, employing the imagery of"silver spaceships"in the future. In some senses, this is appropriate for the silvermarket. Powered by an unprecedented rally in both real and nominal terms in gold to very nearUSD5,600/oz by 29 January of this year, silver hit a record high in nominal (but not real) termsof USD121/oz on the same day.Much, but by no means all, of silver's meteoric rally can beattributed to the influence of gold. Gold subsequently corrected - as did silver - which fellalmost in half to just below USD64/oz by 6 February.Prices have put in a bumpy recovery sincethen and are trading well USD85/oz as of writing, and the question is: with gold pulling back,where now for silver? inJanuary2026 To understand currentmarketdynamics,a closer look atwhatdrove the market lastyearand earlier this year followed by a steep drop may be helpful. While physical tightness and the shiftindeliverable silverfromLondontoNewYorkontariff and otherconcerns resulted inhistoricbackwardation, rocketing lease rates,andhigh EFPs in 2025 and earlier this year,they wereonly one facet of the rally. A bevvy of additional factors, notable among them high gold prices,drove silver higher. This is a theme we repeated in recent outlooks, including Silver Outlook:Raisingourforecastsonabullwave(7October2025)and2026SilverOutlook:Acrestingwave(7 January 2026). Silver's rally was strongly linked to record-high gold prices. As a fellow butmore dominant precious metal, gold exerts a strong gravitational pull on silver, and silver oftengold rally. Now that gold has pulled back, a plank of the silver rally has been removed, and sosilver has fallen as well. We are still positive on gold prices, as outlined in our recent GoldOutlook: Bull-dozer (8 April 2025), but we do not expect the gold rally to resume in earnest untilthere is a sustained resolution to the Middle East conflict, the Straits of Hormuz are reopened,and oil pr