APEC区域趋势分析（2025年10月版）

Inflation andMonetary Policy Trade Performanceand Outlook Suggested PolicyOptions GovernmentDebt KEYPOINTS APEC region shows economicresilience as economies adapt tonew trade policies, but growth isexpected to slow in 2026 amid fiscalconstraints and weaker trade. Trade has strengthened so far in2025 on short-term demand, butsustaining momentum in 2026will be challenging as temporarydrivers fade and policyuncertainty persists. Elevated uncertainty and strong AIand high-tech demand have pushedmetal prices higher, adding to costpressures across metal-intensivesectors. Rising public debt is erodingfiscal buffers and limiting policycapacity to respond to futureshocks. GDP Growth Outlook: Global, APEC and ROW (%, y-o-y) APEC growth remains resilient in 2025 despite elevated uncertainty and trade frictions,but may slow in 2026 amid tighter fiscal conditions and trade deceleration. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2025; Economy sources; APEC PSU staff calculations Amid a low-inflation environment, central banks maintain accommodative stanceto support growth while remaining vigilant against emerging price pressures. Oil prices ease as supply conditions improve following earlier geopolitical strains,while food prices remain broadly stable across key commodity groups. Source:World Bank Commodity Markets;Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN);APEC PSU staff calculations Merchandise trade strengthens on frontloaded shipments, supply chain diversification, andrising demand for metals andcomponents from high-tech industries. Global Air Freight Volume Growth (%, y-o-y) Air freight traffic is adjusting as supply chains realign, with gains on some routesoffset by declines elsewhere amid shifting trade policies. Source: International Air Transport Association (IATA); APEC PSU staff calculations Trade momentum is projected to firm on strong AI and high-tech demand as well as frontloading in 2025,butcould weakenin 2026 as transitory factors fade and policy headwinds intensify. Source: IMF WEO October 2025; APEC PSU staff calculations Trade-facilitating measures remain active, however, continued build-up inrestrictive actions and remedies reflects deepening trade frictions. Amid global tensions, semiconductor billings reach record highs onstrong AI-driven demand for logic and memory chips, led by growth in Asia-Pacific. Governments face a tightrope as rising debt limits fiscal space,with public debt projections revised upwards from 2026 amid ongoing uncertainties. Policy Priorities: Restoring Confidence, Revitalising Growth ADAPTIVEREGIONAL COOPERATION TRANSFORMATIVESTRUCTURAL REFORMS SOUNDECONOMIC POLICIES Boost productivity and long-term growth throughlabor market, innovation, and digital reforms thatharness AI and build human capital amidaccelerating digital and demographic shifts. Strengthen macroeconomic fundamentals, policycertainty and credibility to reduce vulnerabilitiesand reinforce confidence in the businesscommunity. Leverage APEC as a platform for dialogue andcoordination to strengthen multilateralcooperation, rebuild confidence, and promotepredictable frameworks that foster trade andinvestment. Asia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)wasestablishedin1989.The21membereconomiesareAustralia;BruneiDarussalam;Canada;Chile;China;HongKong,China;Indonesia;Japan;Korea;Malaysia;Mexico;New Zealand;Papua New Guinea;Peru;the Philippines;Russia;Singapore;Chinese Taipei;Thailand;theUnitedStates;andVietNam. APECPolicySupportUnit(PSU)isthepolicyresearchandanalysisarmforAPEC.ItsupportsAPECmembersandforainimprovingthequalityoftheirdeliberationsanddecisionsandpromotingpoliciesthatsupportthe achievement of APEC’s goals by providing objective and high-quality research,analyticalcapacity,andpolicysupportcapability. APECRegionalTrendsAnalysis(ARTA)isaserialpublicationofthePSUwhichprovidesanoverviewoftheregion’seconomythroughananalysisofrecentmacroeconomic,tradeandinvestmenttrends.Ittracksrecenttrade and investment measures implemented around the region,and discusses risks andopportunitiestotheregion’seconomicoutlook. ThisreportwaspreparedbyRheaC.HernandoandGlacerNiñoA.Vasquez,AnalystandResearcher,respectively,atthePSU.TheviewsexpressedintheAPECRegionalTrendsAnalysisarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheAPECMemberEconomies.ThisworkislicensedundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike4.0InternationalLicense.Toviewacopyofthislicense,visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.en. APEC Policy Support Unit • APEC Secretariat35 Heng Mui Keng Terrace, Singapore 119616Website: www.apec.org/About-Us/Policy-Support-UnitEmail: psugroup@apec.org Copyright © 2025 APECSecretariatAPEC#225-SE-01.21