为什么2026年的黄金：印尼的战略资产

Contents Gold as a strategic asset for Indonesia's investment landscape is navigating a confluence of pressuresin 2026.Headline inflation is rising, driven by global energy price shock stemming from theMiddle East conflict;Bank Indonesia has abandoned its rate-cut guidance, and Against this backdrop, gold remains a compelling asset for both institutional andindividual investors. Gold has historically served asone ofIndonesia's most reliablecrisis hedge. During the 1997–98 Asian Financial Crisis, gold preserved purchasingpower in rupiah terms as the currency collapsedby80%. This pattern hasbeen Access to gold in Indonesiaat theinstitutionallevelis improving. The Otoritas JasaKeuangan (OJK) has establishedaregulatory framework to support this, paving the Inlate January, equity marketswere spookedbyashockannouncementfromMSCIfreezingall positiveadjustments to Indonesian stocks in its indiceson the Theriskenvironment:why back of ownership transparency dataissues.2Indonesiacouldface adowngrade to Frontier Marketstatusiftransparency reformsare not delivered by Indonesia’s macro-outlook Indonesia's economic outlook has becomecomplicateddespite its continued growth.A seriesofpressures-inflation,limited fiscalroom,and monetarypolicyconstraint-are converging in 2026, againsta Gold as a notable performer Against the backdrop of domestic pressures, goldhasbeena standout performer(Chart2). In 2025,gold inrupiah terms outperformed mostglobal and domesticequityand bondindices. In the wake oftheQ1local Inflation is projected to rise to 3.4%this yearfrom2%in 2025, driven by elevated global energysupplydisruptions.The current administration'sinfrastructure push, fuel subsidies andMakan BergiziGratis (freemeals) programme are widening the fiscal Performance of asset classes in 2025 and Q1 2026 in Quarterly headline CPI and Bank Indonesia policy rate During systemic crisisin equities, gold hasbeen thetime-tested performer. During the Global FinancialCrisis (2008), COVID-19 (2020), Fed rate shock (2022)and the ongoing challenges in 2026, gold in rupiahterms has outperformed local equities everytime. Thestrategic asset class Indonesia’s golden hour arrives In recognition ofgold’s strategic value,aninterestingdevelopmentinthe Indonesian market has been thebuilding ofaregulatory framework by the OJKthat The OJK, under regulationPOJK 5/20234initiallypermitted gold as aninvestment asset for insurersandreinsurers, with a 10%cap ontotal investmentsoutside of PAYDI (unit-linked insurance) funds.OJKexpandedthiswitha product framework(POJK Performance of stocks, bonds and gold during various Gold as a crisis hedge Gold’s role as a crisis hedge has beendemonstratedthroughoutevery major episode of rupiah weaknessand financial stress(Chart3).Gold has been aneffectivehedge against currencydepreciation.Forexample,duringthe1997Asian Financial Crisis, the Chart3: Gold held up during 1997-1998 AsianFinancial Crisis while currencies took a beating Performance of Asian currencies and gold in USD A long term and stable source of return Beyond crisis protection, gold has provided returnsduring various economic cycles(Chart5,p4).Itsdiverse sources of demand give gold a particular Table1:Goldincreasesrisk-adjusted returns whilereducing portfolio volatility Comparison of risk-return on IDR equity-bondportfolio with incremental addition to gold* Chart6:Adding gold over the past 20 years wouldhave increased risk-adjusted returns of a Strengthening Indonesian portfolios While asset allocation varies across Indonesianinstitutional investors,onecommon theme is For instance, pension funds have a mandatoryminimum 30% allocation to domestic governmentbonds. Insurers and mutual funds are boundthrough We reflect domestic realityin our analysisby adoptinga baseline 60% local equities and 40% local bonds,modelling the impact of a gold allocation ranging from Conclusion The case for gold in Indonesia in 2026 remainscompelling and is built upon four pillars: •Elevated risk environment stemming from risinginflation, widening fiscal deficit and domestic equity •Gold has a proven track record as Indonesia’s crisishedge. Across every major episode of rupiahweakness, gold in rupiah terms has preserved and •Gold has been a long-term and stable source ofreturn for Indonesian investors,generating, on •Amodest 2.5% gold allocation, as presented in ouranalysis improves baselineIndonesianportfolios by OJK’s regulatory framework is in motion, with thelaunch of Indonesia’s first gold-backed ETFexpected inmid-2026.The new OJK compliant structure will allowgoldallocation ataninstitutional level,offering World Gold Council Research We are a membership organisation thatchampions the role gold plays as a strategicasset, shaping the future of a responsible andaccessible gold supply chain. Our team of Jeremy De Pessemier, CFAAsset Allocation Strategist Johan PalmbergSenior Quantitative Analyst Kavita ChackoResearch Head, India Krishan Gopau