为什么是2026年的黄金？印度投资组合的锚点

Contents Strong macros, soft returns4 Gold in the equity cycle5Systemic buffer5Changing nature of diversification6Currency hedge6Strategic asset–gold in portfolios6Conclusion7 Discover Goldhub8 Portfolio Simulator8 QaurumSM8 GRAM8 Highlights Escalating geopolitical tensions, changing relationshipsacross asset classes and currency volatility are likely tokeep financial conditions uncertain, reinforcing the Gold is well positioned to anchor Indian portfolios during Strong macros, soft returns India’s macroeconomic credentials remain strong, with the country continuing to postone of the highest growth rates among major economies–above 7% for three However, these favourable macro fundamentals have not translated into financialmarket performance. The INR has weakened, capital inflows have been subdued, andasset returns have been relatively muted. Gains in Indian equities have moderatedamid elevatedvaluations, while monetary easing2has compressed yields on debt Returns of key assets in 2025 and y-t-d in INR* While the broad-based strength of economic activitysuggests growth momentum is likely to persist, risks tothe outlook stem largely from external uncertainties–spillover from geopolitical tensions, volatility in theglobal financial markets, and uncertain global Chart2:Shifting from risk to safety Gold has emerged as one of the strongest performingassets in recent years, outperforming equities, bondsand currencies as investorshavesought protectionagainstgeopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty and In thisenvironment, building strong buffers andconstructing resilient portfolios becomes increasinglyimportant for wealth preservation. The case for gold inIndian portfolios extends beyond recent performance. Systemic buffer Gold has historically shown strong resilience duringepisodes of systemic risk, often delivering positivereturns while limiting portfolio losses. With few Gold in the equity cycle Chart3:Gold during systemic stress The relationship between equitiesand gold oftenreflects shifts in market sentiment. Theequity-goldratio (Nifty–goldratio)captures the relative performance of the two assets over time(Chart2).Periods of strong equity market performance havebeen associated with elevated ratios, while episodes offinancial stress and equity drawdowns have coincidedwith declines,as gold outperforms. The ratio hasrecently fallen to around1.5-1.6,well below its long- *As of 31 December 2025. Return computations inINRfor‘Indian Equity’:SensexIndex; ‘ Indian Bonds’: ICE BoFAGovt Bond Index; ‘gold’: LBMA Gold Price PM.Dates used: Black Monday: 9/1987-11/1987; LTCM: 8/1998; Dot-com: 3/2000-3/2001; September11: 9/2001; 2002 recession: 3/2002-7/2002;Great Recession:10/2007-2/2009; Sovereign debt crisis I: 1/2010-6/2010; Sovereign debt crisis II:2/2011-10/2011; Brexit: 23/6/2016-27/6/2016; 2018 pullback: 10/2018-12/2018;2020 pullback: 31/1/2020-31/3/2020; 2022 pullback: 1/2022–12/2022, tariff Changing nature of Gold prices and USD-INR indexed* Diversification benefits of traditional asset classes havecome into question in recent years. The relationshipbetween equities and bonds–key components ofmost portfolios–has shifted, with the two increasinglymoving in tandem. Historically, Indian governmentbonds tended to exhibit a negative correlation with Strategicasset–gold inportfolios Gold plays an important role as a strategic allocationwithin diversified portfolios. Beyond its resilienceduring periods of uncertainty, gold has delivered long-term returns across economic cycles. Our analysisshows that gold complements equities and broad- Currencyhedge Our portfolio analysis further highlights gold’s positivecontribution.Over a 19-year period,4an average INRportfolio would havedeliveredhigher risk-adjustedreturns and lower drawdowns with gold allocations in Movements in domestic gold prices reflect global goldmarket dynamics, import duty and exchange ratemovements. With gold priced internationally in USD,the value of the Indian rupee can significantlyinfluence its domestic price. Periods of INRdepreciation tend to amplify gold price rises (Chart5). Risk-adjusted returns of a hypothetical portfolio with Conclusion An environment characterised by elevated geopoliticaltensions, shifting market correlations, and persistentcurrency risks underscores the importance of buildingresilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across marketcycles, its diversification attributesand its ability to Discover Goldhub The definitive source of gold data and insight OnGoldhub.comyou will find: QaurumSM •TheDatayouneedto analyse and research gold•Our latest market-leadingResearchandmacroeconomic commentary on gold Quarum is an interactive tool that makesunderstanding gold performance easier and moreintuitive. Powered by World Gold Council’s proprietary •Toolsdesigned to make the most out of your gold How it works: 1.Choose your scenarioSelect a hypothetical macroeconomic scenarioprovided by Oxford Economic