为什么是2026年的黄金？澳大利亚的宏观变化和黄金的理由

Contents Gold’s role in Australianportfolios Australia’s economy continues to grow but resurgent inflation and the Reserve Bankof Australia (RBA)’s decision to resume tightening in February 2026 – diverging fromsome of its peers – raises questions around portfolio allocations. Australia's uniquegeopolitical positioning, with its fortunes tied to increasingly affluent trade partners Against this backdrop, gold’s role in Australian portfolios warrants renewed attention.This report finds that gold has delivered positive returns across all RBA rate regimessince 2010, appreciated notably in AUD terms since 2022, and provides meaningfuldownside protection during equity stress. For Australian investors, a strategic These challenges have shifted the RBA from a cautioushold to active tightening. Australian CPI rebounded to3.8% in January 2026, and the RBA raised the cash rateby 25 basis points to 3.85% in February – the first hikesince November 2023 (Chart2). The recent war in the The 2026 macro picture Economic resilience and inflation pressure Australia’s economy has extended its growth streakthrough 17 consecutive quarters in Q4 2025 with GDPexpanding 2.6% y/y. This comes on the back of privateinvestments (Chart1) – which grew at their strongest Trade uncertainties loom Australia’s geopolitical position with the West and itstrade reliance on Asian countries mean it is vulnerableof both geopolitical shocks and economicuncertainties. Australia’s political stance aligns withWestern countries. Yet Asian countries such as China,Japan, South Korea and India, contributes the most to However, this growth has been accompanied byresurgent inflationary pressures. Strong private sectordemand and labour market tightness, withunemployment hovering around 4.2%, continue togenerate wage pressures that may feed through to Chart3:Asian countries contribute the most toAustralian trade profits What do these mean for Australian investors? First,local investors should re-think the relationshipbetween bonds and equities. Inflationary concerns arelikely to keep the RBA on a hawkish bias in future ratedecisions. Both rising inflation potential and possiblefurther rate hikes are likely to push up local yields, Monthly performances ofGold, ASX300 and MSCIWorld Index during top 10 geopolitical risk spikes* Meanwhile, renewed spikes in geopolitical risk couldpose headwinds for the Australian economy, given itsheavy reliance on exports. Historical patterns suggestthat geopolitical risk shocks tend to cluster, and In fact, the past four years provides a meaningfulstress test. RBA started tightening in 2022, makingcash deposits attractive after ultra-low rates. Between2022 and now, gold appreciated by approximately181%, which more than offset the opportunity cost of Gold’s strategic place inAustralian portfolios Gold, the asset independent fromAustralian’s macro drivers Investors consider opportunity costs when allocatinginto any asset class, and with the RBA back intightening mode, a natural question arises: doAustralian rate cycles meaningfully impact gold Chart7:Gold has appreciated rapidly compared tocash and bonds since 2022 Gold has historically delivered positive returns acrosstightening, hold and easing environments, with noclear evidence that rising rates impair goldperformance, when priced in AUD. Moreover, golddelivered a higher average 12-month forward returnthan Australian equities in every RBA regime. The gap 12-month average returns after a cycle starts* An effective portfolio risk diversifier As correlations between local bonds and equitiescontinue to rise, investors’ search for effectivediversifiers has intensified. Since 2022, structurallyhigher global inflation and more frequent geopoliticalshocks have driven bond–equity correlations higher,as discussed earlier. Yet gold has maintained a This is mainly because gold is driven by supply anddemand dynamics determined globally. For instance,global geopolitical risks, inflation and major centralbanks’ monetary policy paths collectively impactinvestment demand for gold from investors worldwide Chart9:Gold has performed well during Australianequity stresses Correlations between gold & ASX 300 and AusBond &ASX 300* Indeed, gold has been put to the test during periodsof systemic market stress and over the years hasproven to be the asset class that performed betterthan others during such periods (Chart9). And goldhas also generally cushioned portfolio losses when Key takeaways Gold's performance is driven by a diverse set of globalfactors that operate largely independently of domesticinterest rate policy. The question for Australian Gold performs well across all interest rate marketregimes. Since 2010, gold has delivered positive 12-month forward returns whether the RBA wastightening, holding or easing, with no clear evidence The case for diversification has only grown stronger.Geopolitical uncertainty, while episodic, keeps thediversification argument f