为什么是2026年的黄金？跨资产视角

Why gold in 2026?A cross-asset perspective Hedging overconfidence! Highlights Cross-asset returnsweresurprisingly solidin2025 and sofar this year. Market disruptions caused by US tariffs andother global geopolitical eventshaveproved to be short-lived. And while much of the hype has been on the growing Stretched valuations and persistentmacro risks demand caution. Financialspeculationis evidentandcould lead to greater safe-haven Goldtobe supportedvia strongerinflation-hedging demand and a Looking ahead, risk assetsaresitting atuneasy highs against a backdrop of aworld in turmoil (Chart3&Chart4). Yes, there are a host of tailwinds thatshould support a revival in growth throughoutthe year, includingeasiermonetary policy and the global fiscal boost.But the consensus narrative of a Chart4: …and so are credit markets For now, the central problem for investorsis working outhow to position their portfolios amid theclear disconnectbetween the level of conviction in the outlook and the policyuncertainty.Yes, investors can and shouldrecognisethemonetary and fundamental forcesthathave driven marketshigher–especially with more easing on the way in 2026. But Theconcerningmismatch between the level ofconviction inthe outlookvs.the economic policy uncertaintycurrentlyondisplay (Chart5)isone of thekeyreasons gold had its bestyear since the 1970s and continues to do wellyear-to-date.And whilethere is perhaps a concern that goldlooks If core inflation rises meaningfully the Fed will have to raiseshort-term rates again. In other words, the bond market isnot out of the woods, and another cyclical upleg indeveloped market yields could be in the offing. And while aclear turn towards policy hawkishness could curb gold Bonds, a no go? Much of the optimistic growth outlook for this year rests onthe expectation that the US fiscal impulse will turn positive.In such a scenario, inflation is the biggest potential spoiler,particularly as US core PCE inflation is already proving stickyat around 3%. The fact that there is very little slack in the USeconomy clearly adds to this risk. Indeed, the US economy Moreover, gold can still perform itsstrategic roledespitethebig rally we have witnessed over the last several years.Historically, meaningful gold returns prior to a market event (a) Annual gold returns prior to and during theGFC* Chart11: Excessive increases in margin debt have Equities: a bumpy road ahead… The likelihood ofreachingbreaking pointsin equity marketsduring 2026 is difficult to ascertain withany level ofconfidence,but for a hint as to the bumpy road ahead lookno further than the surging US margin debt–a signthatexcesses could bebuilding.Margin debt reflects the amount And after a long rally, and with valuations approachingdotcom levels, it would only take a couple of missed earningstargets to puncture confidence.This, in turn,could result inan unwinding of investor leverage positions(potentiallymagnifying the downside risks to stock prices) and lead to And while growth in margin debt does not necessarily signalan impending peak in the stock market, it is an indication ofincreasing financial speculation and growing risks to marketstability. In fact, there have only been three occasions whenthe y/y growth of margin debt has exceeded the 12-month Chart12:Gold providesdownsideprotection Conclusion As investors navigate a landscape marked by stretchedvaluations, persistent macro risks, and rising pockets offinancial excess, the need for resilience in portfolios hasrarely beenmore pressing.In this environment gold’sstrategic role remains as relevant as ever. Its historical ability World GoldCouncil Research We are a membership organisation that champions the rolegold plays as a strategic asset, shaping the future of aresponsible and accessible gold supply chain. Our team of Jeremy De Pessemier, CFAAsset Allocation Strategist Johan PalmbergSenior Quantitative Analyst Kavita ChackoResearch Head, India Krishan GopaulSenior Analyst, EMEA We drive industry progress, shaping policy and setting thestandards for a perpetual and sustainable gold market. Louise Street Lead Author Marissa SalimSenior Research Lead, APAC Ray Jia Taylor BurnetteResearch Lead, Americas Jeremy De PessemierAsset Allocation Strategist JuanCarlosArtigasGlobalHeadofResearch Market Strategy John ReadeSenior Market Strategist, Joseph CavatoniSenior MarketStrategist, Further information: Data sets and methodology visit:www.gold.org/goldhub Contact:research@gold.org Important information and disclosures ©2026World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent ofWorld Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of revie