中国AI：从DeepSeek专家视角看大语言模型

Internet Software & Services +WehostedDeepSeekproductmanagerEricChenon8May Head ofinternet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+6566580615Charlotte Wei* + Post-training, data, talent and chips key to boosting coding ability + 2026 chip supply set to stay tight; domestic chips can meet40-50%of inference demand AnalvstInternetResearclThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedcharlotte.wei@hsbc.com.hk+85229966539 (Knowledge Atlas), Kimi and DeepSeek (Ds) are leading domestic players. He ranksfour key drivers of coding performance: post-training strategy, data quality -such ashigh-qualitycodeonGitHubplatformandfilesontechnicaldiscussion,talentwhounderstand both LLMs and programminglanguages,and chip resources.2)Agenticcapability:The expert ranks Alibaba'sQwen, Kimi and Ds first onagentic ability andtools.Between hyperscalers andfrontiermodels, he thinks Tencentand Alibababenefit from their vast ecosystems consisting of a user base, high-quality proprietarydata, and ready-made products/tools for integration. Independent labs differentiate viabase-model iteration and architecture.3) Multi-modal and video generation:The expert calls out Minimax and Zhipufor multimodal comprehension strength andKuaishou and Minimax for video generation. notregistered/qualfedpursuanttoFINRAregulations China vs Us model capability: The expert thinks video generation ability betweenChinaandtheUsisbroadlyonapar,USleadsintext/reasoningby1-3monthsand6 months in multimodal. The Us is ahead the most in agent capability, by 8-12 months.Tohim,thelag inmultimodalismainlyduetodataquality/availability,and USmodelsalso havemore advanced architecture.Top Us agentic players offermature toolsuites, skills and deployment-ready agent products within their own ecosystems; Chinahas budget-friendly"agent-ready" models, but lags behind in mature productised agentlayers.Chipshortageisnotthedecisivefactorforthelag,astheUshasanedgeindata quality and talent availability. In the short run, shortages in advanced chips couldcap training efficiency and the pace ofmodel iteration cycles. Chip supplyconstraints:The expertestimates domestic chips currently coverunder40%ofChina'sinferencedemand,butthattheratiocanimproveto40-45%byend-2026 and up to 50% with technological breakthroughs in 7nm-class production.Domesticchipsareused intrainingonlyinselectedsmall experimental settings.Manufacturing capacity constraints and continued dependence on the CUDA softwareecosystem are key bottlenecks in the expert's view. Monetisation strategy: The expert observed overseas players relying on closedecosystems'highly priced subscriptions, especially SaaS-like to-B products. China'sinternet platforms monetise indirectly, leveraging traffic and ecosystem cross-selling,such as in cloud, e-commerce and super-app entry points. Independent labs combinememberships for consumers and to-B APl and private deployments forwhich they chargehencemonetisation will shifttowards service-led use cases and tailored workflowsolutions,whicharepricedbasedonvaluedeliveredratherthanrawtokenconsumption HSBC FundingtheFuture SurveySentiment, Al and Private CreditClick to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobal InvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Speakerbiography cutting-edge Al solutions to market from 2023 to the present. Prior to that, he spent over twoearly member of ByteDance's Al Lab, he played a key role in shaping the user interactionAIGC initiatives Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views orforecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Charlene Liu and Charlotte Wei Equities:Stockratings and basis forfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestorsutilisevariousdisciplinesand investmenthorizons whenmaking investmentdecisions.Ratings shouldnotbe usedorrelied on i