中国智能驾驶芯片追踪（2026年第一季度）：NOA渗透率因电动车销量疲软暂时降至32%

China Smart Driving Chips Tracker (1Q26): NOA penetrationtemporarily dropped to 32% with weaker EV sales This proprietary tracker analyzes China's smart driving chip industry using raw datafrom Gasgoo. The dataset reflects vehicles sold to end users based on auto insuranceregistrations. It is important to note that there is typically a 3–5 month lead time betweensmart driving SoC vendors selling chips to OEM/Tier-1 and the final vehicle sales. Despitethis lag, these figures provide an effective indicator of industry trends and competitivedynamics over the medium to long term. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com NOA (L2+ & L2++) penetration decreased to 32% in 1Q26, edging down from 36%in 4Q25 amid weaker EV sales. Within this, L2++ and L2+ penetration declined by 1pptand 3ppt QoQ, respectively, continuing to suggest that L2++ adoption is more sustainable.The sequential softness was primarily driven by a shift in vehicle sales mix, as EV sales(-27% YoY) was much weaker than non-EV (-9% YoY) due to the rollback of EV purchaseincentives. Additional headwind due to memory price increase also contributed to theweaker NOA penetration. Meanwhile, China PV sales fell sharply with -18% YoY and -36%QoQ. The combination of both declining total volume and lower EV penetration led to asignificant drop in vehicles equipped with NOA features (-40% QoQ). EV sales is recoveringin Apr, we expect the penetration to improve in 2Q26. Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Horizon continue to gain share despite the industry backdrop.Horizon recorded thesmallest QoQ contraction among peers, translating into continued market share gains(+7ppt in L2+ and +4ppt in L2++ QoQ, measured by vehicle penetration). The improvementin L2++ market share is particularly impressive, from a low base of only 1% in 4Q25,Horizon’s share quickly grew 5x to 5% to 1Q26, with J6P installations grew 24% QoQ(deployed into another new model beyond Chery’s ET5, Chery’s iCAR V27), and multiplevehicles from Changan and Li Auto utilize dual J6M to deliver Urban NOA capability. With 10OEMs and 20+ models adopting HSD and J6P, we expect Horizon’s market share continueto ramp up quickly. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Black Sesame share further decline from the low base.It remains constrained tojust two OEM clients for L2+ (Geely and Dongfeng) and has lost wallet share in Geely toHorizon, with A1000 volumes declining for a third consecutive quarter. Market share alsodropped from 2% to only 1% QoQ in L2+. The company mentioned that they have one OEMconfirmed for A2000 for L2++, but deployment could still take a few quarters. Nvidia losing some share while Qualcomm grew slightly.NVIDIA’s L2+ market sharedecreased from 45% to 35% QoQ, as Horizon’s J6M emerged as more cost-efficientalternatives to Orin-N. Nvidia still maintained a dominant share in L2++ but share droppedfrom 54% to 50% QoQ. With more OEMs shifting to in-house chip or local third partyproviders, looks like the trend will continue.Qualcommcontinues to diversify its customerbase beyond Leapmotor (still holds >60% share) and expanded into 5 other OEMs, withmarket share slightly increased from 11% to 12% QoQ for L2+ but still don’t have visibiledeployment for L2++. Continue on next page… At the OEM level, dynamics remain mixed. BYD’ssales volume declined sharply, butHorizon is taking share from Nvidia in L2+ models, and Horizon also confirmed design-win with BYD on L2++ chip so we expect Nvidia to start losing share in L2++ as well laterthis year.Geelygained overall market share and continued shifting wallet share from BlackSesame to Horizon within its L2+ lineup.Cherybegan adopting the J6P + HSD solution inits second model, whose sales have outperformed the first J6P-equipped model. We expect near term sentiment remain weak thus lower PT for Horizon Robotics.Weare still bullish on Horizon’s share gain story with new OEM design win (including BYD forL2++) and are excited about their new Starry chip launch, but the sector beta remains weakand competition on the L2++ chip intensifying as Momenta/Black Sesame’s chip enteringthe market, on top of that Momenta’s IPO also bring negative sentiment to the sector, resetour expectation to lower at HKD 10. We maintain our bearish view on Black Sesame dueto limited market adoption and dilution issue, but as we are still below market expectationmaintain PT at HKD 16. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedQCOM estimate is Adjusted EPS; NVDA estimate is Adjusted EPS EBITDA Margin (%); 25