《2025年第四季度中国智能驾驶芯片追踪报告》：NOA渗透率升至37%，环比增长5个百分点，L2++市场份额超过L2+

China Smart Driving Chips Tracker (4Q25): NOA penetrationreached 37%, up 5ppt QoQ, with L2++ share outpacing L2+ This proprietary tracker analyzes China's smart driving chip industry using raw datafrom Gasgoo. The dataset reflects vehicles sold to end users based on auto insuranceregistrations. It is important to note that there is typically a 3–5 month lead time betweensmart driving SoC vendors selling chips to OEM/Tier-1 and the final vehicle sales. Despite Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.comStacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. The NOA (L2+ & L2++) penetration continue to increase rapidly, reaching 37% in4Q25 (+5ppt QoQ) and reaffirming signs of shifting focus from L2+ to L2++.By4Q25, the overall penetration rate of smart driving in China’s passenger vehicle market roseto 71%, an increase of 8ppt YoY. While Highway NOA (L2+) experienced stronger growth inprevious quarters, its penetration rate decline in 4Q25 (-1ppt QoQ). Conversely, Urban NOA(L2++) penetration accelerated meaningfully, driving L2++ penetration to 20% in 4Q25 +1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comDavid Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com In the Highway NOA segment, Horizon recorded the largest share gain from NVIDIAin 4Q25. Meanwhile, the initial shipments of Horizon’s Urban NOA solutions havebegun to challenge NVIDIA’s long-standing monopoly in the outsourced L2++segment.During the quarter, the number ofNvidia‑equippedL2+ vehicles declined20.6% QoQ, as the company ceded share to Horizon and Qualcomm. In comparison,Horizon and Qualcomm posted QoQ growth of 75.1% and 14.7%, respectively, lifting Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui +852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Horizon has demonstrated strong momentum in L2+ segment and begun to showcompetence in L2++ segment. In 4Q25, Horizon secured new OEM customers,increased wallet share, and expanded deployments of its latest chip models, whileBlack Sesame continue to lose share in L2+ with no success in L2++ yet.Increasingnumbers of BYD and Geely models adopted or switched to Horizon’s L2+ solutions, whichhas adversely affected Black Sesame, whose 90% of installations are coming from Geely.In 4Q25, Horizon began installing the J6P and dual J6M configurations on Chery ET5 and Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Horizon Robotics (Outperform, PT HKD 15): Horizon Robotics is the leading provider of smart driving chips in China. Theyoffer distinctive hardware-software integrated ADAS solutions, combining SoC and algorithms for L2, L2+, and L2++ ADASsystems. This integrated approach allows them to deliver high-performance chips/software at competitive prices, helping themcapture market share. Additionally, a strong balance sheet enables Horizon to invest significantly in R&D, ensuring they maintain Black Sesame (Underperform, PT HKD 16): Black Sesame is the second-largest provider of smart driving chips in China.They focus primarily on L2+ SoC and is expanding to L2++, however lacking software expertise limits their ability to provideuser-friendly chips, slowing their customer acquisition compared to Horizon. Without sufficient scale, the heavy R&D burden NVDA (Outperform, $225):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible QCOM (OP, $200):AAPL headwinds are now here but are known, the product portfolio is stronger than ever, option valueexists, and the shares are very inexpensive. AMD (MP, $235):AI expectations remain high, but a new deal with OpenAI has the prospect to drive further (possibly Hesai (Outperform, PT US$ 33 / HS$ 253): Hesai is a global leader in LiDAR, well positioned to benefit from the rapidadoption of intelligent vehicles and the long-term growth of emerging robotics. DETAILS Chinese auto OEMs are entering the intelligentization phase with the smart driving penetration quickly increasing. We recentlyinitiated the sector cover (China Smart Driving Chip sector initiation), and rate Horizon Robotics with Outperform, PT HKD 15(Horizon Robotics company deep dive) and Black Sesame Underperform, PT HKD 16 (Black Sesame company deep dive). Thisproprietary tracker analyzes China’s smart driving chip industry using raw data released by Gasgoo. The dataset is based onvehicles sold to end users, as indicated by auto insurance registrations. It is important to note that there is typically a 3–5 monthlead time between when smart driving SoC vendors sell chips to OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers and when the final vehicles are OVERALL SMART DRIVING PENETRATION RATE In 4Q25, the overall smart driving penetration rate of smart driving reached 71%. For the NOA segment, L2+ & Abovepenetration continue to rise to 37% in 4Q25. The peak is at 39.2% in