中国智能驾驶芯片：L2+及以上NOA细分市场的竞争格局与关键供应商深度分析

China Smart Driving Chips: Competitive dynamics and keysuppliers deep dive for L2+&above NOA segment China smart driving chip sector is still early and evolving rapidly. In our sector initiationreport (link), we highlight that third-party vendors could capture ~60% of the China TAM,and provided a high level view on the competitive dynamics. In this follow-up, we provide adeep dive into leading smart driving SoC developers and compare the competitiveness ofthese solutions, specifically focusing on the L2+ NOA segment.We believe Horizon hasunique edge to win in the market, reiterate Outperform. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com The competition for L2+&above chips is intense with four groups of players withdifferent strategies.In this emerging market, we categorize all players into four distinctgroups: Smart Driving SoC Specialists, AI/SoC Fabless Incumbents, Traditional AutoSemis Vendors, and OEMs with in-house chip solutions. These groups each have uniquestrengths and weaknesses, with their focus areas often defining their strategic approachin the evolving smart driving SoC sector. Smart Driving SoC Specialists such as HorizonRobotics stand out with specialized ASIC design, all-in investment to smart driving, and canattract top talents in the space. AI/SoC Fabless Incumbents such as NVIDIA and Qualcommexcel in key computing cores and SoC design, but provide insufficient customer support.Traditional Auto Semis Vendors such as Renesas and Texas Instruments benefit fromestablished OEM relationships but lack the advanced capabilities required for L2+ & Above.OEMs with in-house attempts do not possess expertise in chip design except for Tesla andHuawei as early movers. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com For a highly specialized use case like smart driving, we believe dedicated ASICvendors could have an edge in competition.All players compete across four KeySuccess Factors (KSFs): IP for computing cores, SoC design capability, Attractiveness totalents, and OEM service support. We believe that Smart Driving SoC Specialists such asHorizon Robotics are best positioned to gain share in China, thanks to their well-roundedstrengths across all four dimensions. Their deep focus on key computing cores tech andSoC-level engineering, coupled with strong customer service and determined strategicR&D investment, places them ahead of competitors who struggle with one or more KSFs.As the market shifts to L2+ & Above segment, specialists are better equipped to meet thedemands of rapid innovation and performance, positioning them for long-term success. Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Horizon will be the only alternative chip that is commercially available in 2025/26to challenge NVIDIA’s dominance. Although the market is crowded, currently onlyNVIDIA, Tesla, and Huawei provide commercially-ready chips for L2++ solutions. WithChery vehiclesfeaturing J6P+HSD set to launch in Nov 2025, Horizon will become the sole3rd-party vendor, other than NVIDIA, offering solutions in the L2++ segment. Thanks to itsintegrated hardware and software model and corresponding cost advantage of ~30% overNVIDIA, we anticipate that Horizon will establish itself as a leading 3rd-party vendor andaccelerate commercialization in the L2++ segment. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Horizon Robotics (Outperform, PT HKD 15):Horizon Robotics is the leading provider of smart driving chips in China. Theyoffer distinctive hardware-software integrated ADAS solutions, combining SoC and algorithms for L2, L2+, and L2++ ADASsystems. This integrated approach allows them to deliver high-performance chips/software at competitive prices, helping themcapture market share. Additionally, a strong balance sheet enables Horizon to invest significantly in R&D, ensuring they maintaintheir technological leadership in the smart driving SoC, and in the future develop chips for robotics & expand globally through JV. Black Sesame (Underperform, PT HKD 16):Black Sesame is the second-largest provider of smart driving chips in China.They focus primarily on L2+ SoC and is expanding to L2++, however lacking software expertise limits their ability to provideuser-friendly chips, slowing their customer acquisition compared to Horizon. Without sufficient scale, the heavy R&D burdensuggests they will need to raise capital frequently, which could dilute shareholder value. NVDA (Outperform, $225):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible. QCOM (Outperform, $185):AAPL headwinds are now here but are known, the product portfolio is stronger than ever, optionvalue exists, and the shares are very inexpensive