中国智能驾驶芯片追踪（2025年三季度）：NOA渗透率达32%，环比提升4个百分点，L2++加速更快

China Smart Driving Chips Tracker (3Q25): NOA penetrationreached 32%, up 4ppt QoQ, with L2++ accelerating faster This proprietary tracker analyzes China's smart driving chip industry using raw datafrom Gasgoo. The dataset reflects vehicles sold to end users based on auto insuranceregistrations. It is important to note that there is typically a 3–5 month lead time betweensmart driving SoC vendors selling chips to OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers and the final vehiclesales. Despite this lag, these figures provide an effective indicator of industry trends andcompetitive dynamics over the medium to long term. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com The NOA (L2+ & L2++) penetration continue to increase rapidly, reaching 32% in3Q25 (+3.8ppt QoQ) and showing early signs of shifting focus from L2+ to L2++.In 3Q25, the overall penetration rate of smart driving in China’s passenger vehicle marketreached 69%, an increase of 8ppt vs. 2Q24. While previous quarters saw fast growth inHighway NOA (L2+) penetration, the upward momentum of L2+ begins to decelerate in3Q25. Conversely, the QoQ increase in Urban NOA (L2++) penetration outpaces that ofL2+, driving the L2++ penetration to 14% in 3Q25, +2.1ppt QoQ. This transition alignswith our long-held view regarding the dominance of L2++, although it is occurring soonerthan we had anticipated. The upgrade from L2+ to L2++ will significantly enhance userexperience and increase the SoC dollar content per vehicle. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com In Highway NOA segment, Horizon and Qualcomm gain share sequentially fromNvidia in 3Q25, while the outsourced Urban NOA remains monopolized by Nvidia.During the quarter, the number of NVDA penetrated L2+ vehicle grew 6.7% QoQ, withmonthly penetrated vehicle numbers stabilizing around 200k. Horizon and Qualcommexpanded more aggressively in 3Q25, achieving QoQ growth rates of 17% and 351%,respectively, resulting in market share gains from NVDA. In L2++ segment, NVIDIA remainsthe only 3rd-party vendor, holding a 52% market share by vehicle in 3Q25. The remaininghalf split among Tesla, Huawei, NIO, and Xpeng in-house chips. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Horizon has demonstrated strong momentum in L2+ segment, with new OEMclients, increased wallet share, and new chip models installed.In 3Q25, Horizonstarted to provide J6M to Dongfeng and GAC in L2+. Their new J6E chips also started to bedeployed to SAIC etc. Increasing numbers of BYD and Geely models adopted or switchedto Horizon’s L2+ solutions, which has adversely affected Black Sesame, whose 90% ofinstallations are attributed to Geely. While BYD, Geely, and Chery use a diverse set of SoCsuppliers for L2+, all three continue to rely purely on NVDA for L2++ solutions, as thereis no other commercially ready solution available in the market yet. Therefore, we expectHorizon’s J6P with 560 TOPS (HSD 600) or double J6M with 256 TOPS (HSD 300) shouldbe able to gain some share in the segment, as it will be the only alternative L2++ chipsolutions other than NVDA in 2026, and OEMs likely will adopt dual sourcing strategy forbetter pricing and supply chain resiliency. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Horizon Robotics (Outperform, PT HKD 15): Horizon Robotics is the leading provider of smart driving chips in China. Theyoffer distinctive hardware-software integrated ADAS solutions, combining SoC and algorithms for L2, L2+, and L2++ ADASsystems. This integrated approach allows them to deliver high-performance chips/software at competitive prices, helping themcapture market share. Additionally, a strong balance sheet enables Horizon to invest significantly in R&D, ensuring they maintaintheir technological leadership in the smart driving SoC, and in the future develop chips for robotics & expand globally through JV. Black Sesame (Underperform, PT HKD 16): Black Sesame is the second-largest provider of smart driving chips in China.They focus primarily on L2+ SoC and is expanding to L2++, however lacking software expertise limits their ability to provideuser-friendly chips, slowing their customer acquisition compared to Horizon. Without sufficient scale, the heavy R&D burdensuggests they will need to raise capital frequently, which could dilute shareholder value. NVDA (Outperform, $225):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible QCOM (OP, $215):AAPL headwinds are now here but are known, the product portfolio is stronger than ever, option valueexists, and the shares are very inexpensive. Table Of Contents Overall Smart Driving Penetration Rate................................................