1Q26评论：尽管市场持续面临逆风，企业执行力依然坚韧

execution despite persistentmarket headwinds 1Q26 review: resilient businessexecutiondespite persistent market headwinds Target PriceUS$235.00(Previous TPUS$270.00)Up/Downside16.8%Current PriceUS$201.16 Coinbase reported 1Q26 results: totalrevenuedeclined by 31% YoY and 21%QoQto US$1.41bn amid soft market sentiment,in line with Bloombergconsensusestimate; adjusted EBITDA was down by 67% YoY and 46% QoQto US$303mn, below the consensus estimate of US$408mn. Despite marketheadwinds, Coinbase continued to gain cryptotradingmarketshareand newinitiatives (e.g. derivatives and prediction market) also gained solid traction. For2Q26E,management guided for: 1) subscription and services revenue ofUS$565-645mn (-3%-+11% QoQ), primarily driven by increases in USDCmarket cap but offset by declinesin crypto asset prices; 2) transactionrevenueof c.US$215mn QTD (1 Apr-5 May). The company also announcedin Mayplansto reduce workforce by 14% to weatherthesector headwind and accelerate AItransition,which will lead to US$500mn cost reduction in FY26 per Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk Gaining market share despite weak environment.Transaction revenuewas down by 40% YoY and 23% QoQ to US$756mn in 1Q26, against abackdrop of declinesin crypto markettradingvolumes (-28% QoQ). Coinbasecontinued to grow its crypto trading volume market share to 8.6% in 1Q26,from 6.0%/8.0% in 1Q25/4Q25, thanks to the successful expansion of itsproduct offerings. TTM derivatives trading volume grew by 169% YoY to Stablecoinbusiness maintained steady growth.Subscription andServicesrevenuedeclinedby14% YoY and 16% QoQto US$584mn in1Q26. Stablecoin revenue grew by 11% YoY to US$305mn in 1Q26 drivenbygrowth in USDC Market Cap, while blockchain rewards revenue wasdown by 49% YoY to US$101mn due to declinesin crypto asset prices.USDCand Base became primary choices for agentic payment and Expect CLARITY Act to besignedby this summer.On regulatory front,managementexpectsthe CLARITY Act to be signed by the end of thissummer. For the stablecoin, the legislation is likely to preserveactivity-based rewards while prohibiting passive deposit-style yields. Besides, with Source: FactSet Valuation WevalueCoinbaseat US$235.0per share based onSOTPvaluation, comprising: 1)transaction business of US$111.0per share (47% of total valuation) based on23x FY26EEV/EBITDA(on par with exchange andbrokerageplatforms); 2) stablecoin business ofUS$94.2per share (40% of total valuation) based on47x FY26E EV/EBITDA(on par withCircle); 3) custodial, blockchain rewards and otherbusiness of US$10.0per share (4% of Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst whois primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report. Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potentialloss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates,shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or