中国自动驾驶：2026年考察要点——自主前进

China Autonomous Driving: 2026 Tour Takeaways — Advancing We hosted our 3rd Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com + test rides in XPeng, Xiaomi, and Momenta-supported cars, and L4 Pony.ai and WeRiderobotaxis. We also met with Horizon Robotics, Black Sesame, Qianli, Hesai (covered by DienWang), and RoboSense. This note summarizes our takeaways from test rides and meetings. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com L2++ capability continues to advance meaningfully across the field.We remainimpressed by XPeng’s VLA 2.0, which delivers confident, natural, human-like driving,while Momenta has shown a clear step-up vs. its prior generation and Xiaomi has alsodemonstrated improving confidence. The broader adoption of world models for simulationand scenario generation is accelerating capability scaling, lowering development costs, Competition is intensifying for L2++ Urban NOA software and chips.On software, Momenta is still dominant in terms of market adoption, but Horizon is delivering HSD totalsolution with their L2++ algorithm being adopted by increasingly more OEMs including,Chery, VW, Changan etc. Qianli also have their smart driving algorithm delivered to Geely/ Counting on hardware-software integration as the moat.On the chip side, Horizonis still the only credible competitor to Nvidia for 500+ TOPS chips in 2026 and is gettingdesign wins from Chery, VW, BYD etc, but Momenta supported a ADAS chip startup calledXheart which has been deployed on the latest model from VW (ID ERA 9X). Black Sesame’sL2++ chip could start to get more commercial momentum with design win with one OEMalready achieved. Qianli decided to support Axera who is developing their own L2++chips. Meanwhile, OEMs are increasingly bringing chip development in-house: XPeng hasshipped 200k+ Turing chips and targets 1m units in 2026 (including for VW), NIO’s Shenjiis deployed on ET9, ES6, and EC6 and open to external licensing, Li Auto’s M100 launcheswith the L9 Livis flagship—raising the competitive bar for all third-party chip vendors. L4 Robotaxis are now less constrained by autonomy breakthroughs and increasinglydetermined by cost reduction, operational scale, utilization density, and regulatorytrust.Pony.ai is targeting < RMB 230k per vehicle by 2027, driven by fleet scale, component deflation (notably LiDAR), domestic substitution, and manufacturingoptimization; and WeRide sees a path to c.RMB 150k BOM within five years. Robotaxieconomics are converging toward manufacturing and operations optimization—especiallyutilization density (trips/day). China has largely proven technical viability, but international partnerships—are expected to drive profits. The biggest remaining uncertainty is regulation,not technology. Governments are not arbiters of autonomy architectures; they prioritizesafety track record, operational reliability, and public trust. Industry-wide setbacks can BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Chinese Autos:For our EV names, we rate BYD and Xiaomi Outperform, and XPeng, Li Auto, and NIO Market-Perform. Withinour traditional Chinese OEMs coverage, we rate Geely Outperform and Great Wall, GAC, and SAIC Market-Perform. China Semiconductors:We rate Horizon Robotics Outperform and Black Sesame Underperform. DETAILS Add Details text here DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RISKS This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Pa