中国互联网与新媒体：中国互联网考察的关键要点

14 January 2026 EQUITY: INTERNET & NEW MEDIA Research Analysts Key takeaways from China internet tour China Internet & New Media Jialong Shi - NIHKJialong.shi@nomura.com+852 2252 1409 Top picks: Alibaba, Tencent, JDH and J&T Interesting feedbacks from select companiesThe Nomura China internet team hosted a week-long China internet tour across Hangzhou, Rachel Guo - NIHKrachel.guo@nomura.com+852 2252 1400 Shanghai and Beijing during 6-9 January and met 21 corporate managements and industryexperts that represent most of the internet verticals including managements from listedcompanies such as Alibaba (BABA US, Buy), Baidu (BIDU US, Buy), Bilibili (BILI US, Neutral),Didi (DIDIY US, Not rated), AliHealth (241 HK, Not rated), FTA (YMM US, Not rated), Trip.com(TCOM US, Neutral), Kanzhun (BZ US, Not rated), NetEase (NTES US, Buy), Lianlian Digital(2598 HK, Not rated), Yalla (YALA US, Not rated), BingEx Limited (FLX US, Not rated), INLY Alibaba (BABA US, Buy)highlighted that the weak consumer sentiment in the Decemberquarter (Dec Q) led to intense competition in the ecommerce industry. Managementmentioned the tightened VAT collection, as discussed inour recent report, is another negativefactor which the company is monitoring closely. We believe, as indicated in our sector report,this sudden tightened collection of VAT likely played a big role in the dramatic slowdown of theentire ecommerce industry – we estimate BABA’s CMR growth likely slowed to just 1% in the To help our clients better digest the dynamics in China’s ecommerce market and itsoutlook in 2026, the Nomura China internet team is hosting a group call with a Douyinecommerce expert at 9:30-10:30am HKT on 15 January. Please contact your Nomura While cautious on ecommerce, BABA sounded bullish about its AI cloud, expectingcontinued solid growth in this segment. We expect AliCloud revenue to have grown 38%y-y in the Dec. Q, up from the 34% growth in the preceding quarter. BABA indicated thatits AI ambition is not limited to business-oriented services where BABA is a leaderalready. The company is also exploring opportunities in consumer AI applications by re-launching its consumer AI chatbot, Qwen, in 4Q25. In addition, its Quark app has Quick commerce (QC) likely recorded significant reduction in losses in the Dec Q, basedon BABA management’s comments. We estimate the loss might have narrowed toCNY21bn, vs a loss of CNY36bn in the Sep Q. BABA indicated that it did not cutsubsidies to pursue improvement in UE (unit economics). Rather, it has adjusted the BABA continues to prioritize growth/market share gains over profitability for QC, believingthe latter will be a natural product of expanded business scale. Its strength lies in rich Baidu (BIDU US, Buy)maintained a bullish tone about the outlook of its AI underpinned byindustry-leading chip business operated under the brand, Kunlunxin (KLX, unlisted) which has Baidu's management identified five high-growth businesses: AI Cloud Infrastructure, AI Production Complete: 2026- SeeAppendix A-1for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Applications, Apollo Go (Robotaxi), AI-native Marketing Services, and AI Chips (Kunlun).In 3Q25, the combined revenue of the five disclosed segments reached ~CNY10bn, growingroughly 50% y-y vs the reported revenue of CNY25bn (down 7% y-y) for Baidu Core in 3Q25.Baidu suggested it is likely paying a regular cash dividend in order to improve the visibility of itscapital return to long-term shareholders. We think the upcoming IPO of KLX remains a keycatalyst for the Baidu stock. We value KLX at USD32bn by applying a 40% discount to themarket cap of Cambricon (688256 CH, Not rated), implying 19x our projected KLX’s sales ofCNY12bn in FY27F. Based on management comments, we believe our valuation is likelybelow the company’s expectation on KLX’s valuation upon the IPO. Baidu confirmed other Trip.com (TCOM US, Neutral)says the overall volume of Chinese outbound travelers hasremained stable lately despite the increasing cancellation of Japan-bound flights by Chineseairlines. According to the data we collected from industry sources, the cancelled Japan-boundflights for the month of February 2026 (when the CNY golden week falls) had reached 30% ofthe total Japan-bound flights operated by Chinese airlines as of 22 Dec 2025, up from 10% in TCOM remains bullish about the outlook of international travel markets where its brand, Trip,has gained market share at a fast pace. Management indicated the loss ratio of Trip will likelyimprove in 2026 if the competition does not further escalate with Agoda [owned by Booking(BKNG, Not rated)], which TCOM states has been a rational competitor so far. TCOM has NetEase’s (NTES US, Buy)PC title,Where winds meet (WWM), debuted strongly inoverseas markets with high rankings by daily grossing on the game platform, Steam, in the firstmonth of release since 15 November 2025. Worth noting thatWWMis one of t