Bernstein-中国半导体：中国半导体行业，2025年中证协考察团考察要点-20250910【24页】

China Semicap: 2025 CSEAC Tour Takeaway We visited Wuxi CSEAC (China Semiconductor Equipment Annual Conference) duringSept 3-5, 2025, talked to sales & engineer experts at the booths and met with companymanagement. We refresh our semicap views in our talks with NAURA, AMEC, Piotech,ACMR, Kingsemi, BEST, RISC, Siok, Fortune Precision, etc. (all not covered except forthe first three) In addition, we visited CR Micro, NCE Power, Star Power (all not covered)to discuss the latest progress on local power semis. We also met with Novosense andMaxscend (all not covered) to update the analog & RF industry cycle. This call summarizeout key takeaways from the tour.Domestic substitution is happening faster thanexpected, we iterate Outperform in NAURA, AMEC, Piotech and Silergy. Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com For Semicap, advance logic is driving the local China WFE order growth this year,while memory could accelerate next year.Companies have seen advanced logic drivingthe growth for China WFE demand this year, which not only reflects in strong WFE imports(see our tracker) but also the strong order growth for local WFE companies as we confirmedduring the tour. Both NAURA & AMEC have seen >40% order growth in 1H25, with NAURAciting their advanced logic equipment order could double this year, despite mgmt triedto be conservative on full year order growth guidance. For memory, the most mentioned topic is local memory IDMs are investing heavily on 4F2and 3D-DRAM R&D. While thelater could still be years away, the former is approachable within the next year or so insome positive views. Lack of EUV has forced domestic logic & memory players to pursue architecture innovation (such as GAA or 4F2), and next round of capacity expansion willlikely benefit domestic players more given the co-development. Competition is intensifying,during our talk with local WFE companies, the most frequent word we heard is “involution”,and companies generally believe their GPM will be in the 40%+ range rather than 45%+commonly seen for global vendors. For Power Semi, recovery in cycle, capacity expansion & taking share from overseascompetitors are the main focus at this stage.In terms of end demand, so far allcompanies have seen recovery in pretty much all segments but especially solar, with somediscrete like IGBT even faced temporary capacity shortage, but ASP still remains stableor even slightly decrease. Auto is under the spotlight, with BYD, Xiaomi, etc. aggressivelyadopting local power vendors including MOS, IGBT & SiC; domestic players are taking sharefrom Onsemi in MOS, and IGBT from Infineon. Besides, companies all mentioned AI server,eVTOL & Robotics as the emerging revenue drivers. Apart from CR Micro being an IDM inPower Semi, Star Power has been pursuing Virtual IDM mode with self-owned capacity.NCE also has backend capacity for auto level testing and package. For Analog & RF, domestic players are consistently taking overseas share.Autoapplication is still the main driver for local analog vendors’ growth; for RF, mobile demandmay be subdued for a while. Local analog vendors content per car is approximately RMB1,300~2,000, with a lot of direct pin-to-pin replacement of TI, and in the future plan togo overseas along with China OEMs. In addition, pan-energy, robotics, etc. are also thetarget markets. However, RF still showed some weakness due to saturated mobile demanddespite the localization trend is ongoing. Hence, companies are turn to IoT market as thenurture driver amid severe competition. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS NAURA (Outperform, CNY 400.00):As the domestic WFE leader, NAURA has the broadest product portfolio coveringDeposition (PVD, CVD), Dry Etch (ICP), Thermo Processes, and Cleaning, as well as a more diverse client base covering leadinglogic, DRAM, NAND players, benefiting from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. AMEC (Outperform, CNY 300.00):Primarily focused on Dry Etch (CCP, ICP) with rapid expansion in Deposition (ALD, LPCVD,EPI), commonly perceived as the domestic WFE company with the best technology and widest global recognition, continues tobenefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. Piotech (Outperform, CNY 280.00):Rising domestic WFE vendor primarily focused on Deposition (PECVD, HDPCVD, SACVD,ALD) with expansion in W2W and C2W hybrid bonding equipment for advanced packaging. Piotech has a strong track record ofproduct innovation, which should allow it to benefit from the WFE domestic substitution in China with acceleration share gain. Silergy (Outperform, PT TWD 370):The biggest Analog players in China, with Auto & Server as the next growth engines. OurPT reflects NTM+1 (2H26-2H27) EPS at 16.00 TWD, and we maintain our target P/E multiple at 23x. DETAILS SEMICAP & COMPONENTS SEMICAP