建筑行业趋势2026年2月

Tariff-related economicuncertainty stillweighs on commercial February 2026 Global overview cycles should be felt during the course of 2026, with lower ratesalleviating some of the pressure on both demand and supply in thehousebuilding market. However housing shortages in many developed Emerging economies drive acceleration in construction output After increasing 1.4% last year we expect global constructionoutput to grow by 2.3% this year. Growth in advanced economiesis predicted to increase by 1.5%, while building activity in emergingmarkets will rise by 3.1%. The domestic nature of the construction The global civil engineering sector will grow 2.5% in 2026, followed bya 3.7% increase in 2027. While fiscal consolidation in some countriesaffects infrastructure construction, others use fiscal expansion to buildroads, railways, bridges, tunnels, and power grids etc. Governments However despite this, global trade issues have increased businessuncertainty, leading to lower commercial construction spendingin many countries. Many companies have delayed investmentdecisions until the outlook for the global trade environmentbecomes clearer, causing postponements and even cancellations Labour shortages and construction material prices remain issues Shortages of skilled construction labour and high labour costs arestructural issues affecting many advanced economies. This is stronglyimpacting profit margins and delivery deadlines. Labour shortagesand wage costs are particular issues for builders that work with fixedcontract prices and are unable to pass on extra costs. After prices of Global residential construction output is forecast to increase by2.6% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. The impact of interest rate cutting Industry performance forecast Industry trendsConstruction Constraints and downside risks Competitive environment.In most markets competition isintense, profit margins are thin and public buyers often pay late. Fiscal support.Government plans across the globe to acceleratetheir green transition and deliver more energy security will drive Sustainability.There is increasing investment and demand forrenovation or upgrades to improve energy efficiency and to Labour shortage.A lack of skilled workers can increase wagecosts and is a serious issue in many advanced markets. This couldbecome a major structural problem in Europe in the mid-term. Sustainability.The sector accounts for a whopping 36% of theworld’s energy use and 40% of CO2 emissions. There is pressure AmericasConstruction outlook USA difficulty in assessing project viability,with investors often pausing while Modest growth expected in 2026 We expect US construction output togrow by just 1.5% year-on-year in 2026.Targeted tariffs on key construction inputsincluding steel, aluminium, and copper aredisproportionately affecting the industry,which faces an additional effective tariff Civil engineering performance remainsrobust, expected to grow by 5.4% in2026 after a 6.1% increase in 2025.The subsector benefits from ongoinginfrastructure investment and largemegaprojects, especially tech data centres PoorThe credit risk in the sector is relatively high/ business performance in the sector isbelow its long-term trend. The credit risk in the sector is poor /business performance in the sector is weakcompared to its long-term trend. Overall resilient, but some issues remain For the time being the US constructionindustry as a whole remains resilient,despite pressure on profit marginsdue to elevated interest, materials, andlabour costs. We expect no deteriorationof the sector’s credit risk in the comingsix months. The sector has historically The construction labour market is tight.Project costs are rising to meet higherwages, negatively affecting companiesthat have a lot of fixed price contracts.The current policy to curb immigrationand implement more deportations is Recent interest rate cuts by the Fed aresupporting construction activity butborrowing costs remain elevated for the Some construction businesses are holdinghigh levels of inventory and accountsreceivable, placing pressure on cash flows.Despite profitable operations, this could After a 0.4% contraction in 2025residential construction output is expectedto rebound by 2.5% in 2026. The decline inmortgage rates is driving a gradual thawin the housing market, but at the same Non-residential construction is expectedto contract by 2.2% this year after growing1.1% in 2025. Despite recent agreementswith China and other countries, the UStrade policy continues to hamper anddelay business investments in new Matt NathanAtradius Underwriter inBaltimore, Maryland, USA.Construction sector Asia PacificConstruction outlook China A modest rebound is on the cards Sector credit risk is above average After a 0.9% contraction in 2025 we expectChinese construction output to rebound by2% in 2026. Residential construction hassuffered from weak sentiment and ongoingfinancial problems, with the r