美联储观察：孤独鸽派

Amy Yang | Matthew Luzzetti | Brett Ryan | Justin Weidner | Avik Chattopadhyay April 20, 2026 DB Fed Watcher: Lonesome dove(s) Source: FRB, Deutsche Bank. Note: The black dots represent permanent voting members, including the Governors and NY Fed president.The green dots represent regional voters in 2026 and red dots represent regional voters in 2027. All other officials are represented by thegray dots. *Dot submitted by Atlanta Fed while the search for president is ongoing Chart highlights Recentpublications: US Economic Chartbook: US Inflation Outlook: Energyprices fuel upside risks to inflation–Apr-17-2026 Measures of broad-based inflation show progress ondisinflation stalled Fed Notes: 5 things to watch at Warsh's hearing–Apr-17-2026 US Economic Perspectives: April Beige Book: costs ofMiddle East conflicts adding to uncertainty–Apr-16-2026 US Economic Perspectives: Outlook update: The (oil)drumbeat of war–Apr-16-2026 US Economic Chartbook: Monthly charts: Policypatience amidst rising prices pressures at the pump–Apr-13-2026 FCI-G has eased back to the level seen in 2022following improving prospects of reopening Hormuz USpolicy uncertainty index remained elevated onboth trade and national security issues US Economic Notes: March CPI recap: Softer coreovershadowed by surge in energy prices–Apr-10-2026 US Economic Perspectives: Is the Fed r(*)estrictive?–Apr-09-2026 Webinar: March CPI preview & webinar registration–Apr-07-2026 Hawk-dove scores for Fed voters through 2027 Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request *PricesarecurrentasoftheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicatedandaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompanies,andothersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBankResearch,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures.Asidefromwithinthisreport,importantriskandconflictdisclosurescanalsobefoundathttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investorsarestronglyencouragedtoreviewthisinformationbeforeinvesting. Analyst CertificationTheviews expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Amy Yang, Matthew Luzzetti, Brett Ryan, JustinWeidner. Avik Chattopadhyay is an employee of Acuity Analytics, a third-party research service provider to Deutsche Bank. Additional Information TheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyDeutscheBankAGoroneofitsaffiliates(collectively"DeutscheBank").Thoughtheinformationhereinisbelievedtobereliableandhasbeenobtainedfrompublicsourcesbelievedtobereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreportareprovidedforreaderconvenienceonly.DeutscheBankneitherendorsesthecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. IfyouusetheservicesofDeutscheBankinconnectionwithapurchaseorsaleofasecuritythatisdiscussedinthisreport,orisincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. DeutscheBankmayconsiderthisreportindecidingtotradeasprincipal.Itmayalsoengageintransactions,foritsownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,salesstaffandotheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatareinconsistentwiththosetakeninthisresearchreport.DeutscheBankissuesavarietyofresearchproducts,includingfundamentalanalysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandtradeideas.Recommendationscontainedinonetypeofcommunicationmaydifferfromrecommendationscontainedinothers,whetherasaresultofdifferingtimehorizons,methodologies,perspectivesorotherwise.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecuritiesoftheissuersitwriteson.AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofDeutscheBankAGanditsaffiliates,whichincludesinvestmentbanking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. Opinions,estimatesandprojectionsconstitutethecurrentjudgmentoftheauthorasofthedateofthisreport.TheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutscheBankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankprovidesliquidityforbuyersandsellersofsecuritiesissuedbythecompaniesitcovers.DeutscheBankresearchanalystssometimeshaveshorter-termtradeideasthatmaybeinconsistentwithDeutscheBank'sexistinglonger-termratings.SometradeideasforequitiesarelistedasCatalystCallsideasontheResearchWebsite(https://research.db.com/Research/),andcanbefoundonthegeneralcoveragelistandalsoonthecoveredcompany’spage.ACatalystCallidearepresentsahigh-convictionbeliefbyananalystthatastockwilloutperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecifiedsectoroveratimeframeofnolessthan