2026年银行与资本市场展望

The year ahead will likely demand boldchoices as banks balance macro headwinds,AI ambition, and the potential disruptiveentrance of stablecoins Deloitte Center for Financial Services Table of contents02. . . Introduction03. . . Sustaining growth while balancing optimism and caution in 202606 . . . Banks brace for potential deposit disruption while assessing stablecoinopportunities09 . . . Five steps banks should consider to move beyond isolated AI projects11 . . . Redoubling the commitment to a modern, AI-ready infrastructure15 . . . Banks should embrace a more dynamic and tech-enabled approach tofighting financial crime19 . . . Endnotes How could the macroeconomic realities in 2026impact the banking and capital markets industry’srevenues and profitability? Will some banks’ AI ambitions be thwarted by theirbrittle and fragmented data infrastructure? Can banks’ defenses keep up with the increasingspeed and sophistication of financial crime? What does the disruptive entrance of stablecoinsmean for banks and payment firms? What should banks do in 2026 to industrialize AIat scale? Introduction 2026 appears to be shaping up as a defin-ing year for US banks. Macroeconomicuncertainty, diverging consumer senti-ment, and persistent inflation couldtest banks’ revenues and profitability,even as strong capital positions provideresilience. Banks could be forced to defend margins,diversify fee income, and prepare for increasedcompetition from nonbank entities. Meanwhile, AI is at an inflection point. Many banksare under pressure to scale and move beyond pilots,but 2026 will likely demand robust, enterprise-levelstrategies, governance, and a disciplined approachto return on investment. Agentic AI offers break-through potential, but only if supported by AI-readydata—accurate,timely,broad,and securelygoverned. Without this data foundation, even themost ambitious models could stall. The payments landscape also seems to be at a cross-roads. Stablecoins, backed by the new Guiding andEstablishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins(GENIUS) Act legislation, could impact depositflows and challenge traditional payment rails. Banksshould decide whether to issue, custody, process,or partner—and do so quickly, as tokenized depos-its and programmable money reshape customerexpectations. Separately, financial crime risks are escalating,fueled by AI-enabled fraud, sanctions complexity,and rising costs. Integrated, tech-driven defensesare imperative. This report offers potential prescriptions for banksin the above areas. The leaders who act decisivelyin 2026 may shape the future of banking. Sustaining growth while balancingoptimism and caution in 2026 The range of possible scenarios for theUS economy in 2026 remains wide,with possibly yet another year ofsurprises for the US banking industry.Banks will likely be watching care-fully for the impact of tariffs and thestrength of the labor market. At this point, thereare at least three possible scenarios for how the USeconomy might evolve in 2026. uncertainty around tariffs may restrain businessconfidence. Deloitte forecasts business investmentto grow by about 3% in 2026, slightly lower than3.6% in 2025. The job market also began to show weakness, witha perceptible decline in job openings and higherunemployment among younger workers.7In 2026,wage growth may moderate, and the unemploymentrate could rise from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.5%, as perDeloitte’s economic forecast.8 In the downside scenario, the impact of tariffs oninflation and economic growth could be apparent asthe year unfolds, with the potential for higher infla-tion and a more stressed labor market. GDP couldstall or even turn slightly negative for a quarter. TheUS dollar could also continue to lose ground. The inflation picture remains tentative. After modestgains in 2025, the Consumer Price Index may hoverat roughly 3.2% in 2026. But with a weakening jobmarket, the Federal Reserve may drop interest ratesto 3.125% by the end of2026.9 Conversely, in the upside scenario, these risks couldremain dormant and keep the economy hummingwithout any major hiccups. Deloitte forecasts that the yield curve shouldsteepen, as long-term yields may remain high dueto higher inflation expectations, concerns about thefederal debt, and the strength of the US dollar.10Short-term yields could decline due to a lower-rateenvironment in 2026. A third, more probable, baseline scenario is themiddle path. In this scenario, the economy ispredicted to stumble briefly in 2026, but the setbackis short, and recovery follows with GDP growthreaching about 1.4% in 2026, down from 1.8%in 2025.1 How the macroeconomic environmentcould impact the banking industry Looking ahead to 2026, consumer sentiment could befurther tested, dampening spending in a meaningfulway. Household debt, as of the second quarter of2025, reached a peak of $18.4 trillion. Consumerconfidence has also declined recently,2but there isa bifurcation in sentiment: The affluent conti